The oft-cited pollster Mark Blumenthal, who writes about all matters related to polling and its methodology on his Mystery Pollster blog, has posted the results of his analysis/investigation into what he feels may have gone awry in the Columbus Dispatch polling just prior to the November 8th election in Ohio.

We've previously reported on the final results of the five initiatives on the ballot in the Buckeye State two weeks ago - four of them part of an Election Reform package --- and the "staggeringly impossible" disparities, as we described them, revealed by those results when compared to the results of the Dispatch's final pre-election polling. To catch anybody up who hasn't seen the numbers, here's one set of them:

ISSUE 3 (Revise campaign contribution limits)
PRE-POLLING: 61% Yes, 25% No, 14% Undecided
FINAL RESULT: 33% Yes, 66% No

Blumenthal deserves kudos for his serious and detailed investigation into both the Dispatch survey's "long and remarkable history of success," as he describes it, and where he feels they might have gone so astoundingly wrong this year for the very first time. He points to a few changes in the methodology for the poll; the Dispatch didn't use the precise text of the initiatives in its survey; included an "Undecided" option for the first time; an examination of the data seems to show the poll occurred at a time that the electorate was in the process of changing its opinions on the issues; and finally that many voters found the text of the actual ballot initiatives to be long and confusing leading them to take the safer vote of "No" when they were not clear about what they were actually voting for.

Where he doesn't deserve credit is in his approach which presumes from the start that there must be something wrong with the polling itself --- but not the Election Results --- to explain the unprecedented disparity between the polling and the final results of the actual election.

As a pollster himself, he surely knows that it's quite simple to construct a poll in such a way that one can get back results which match just about any pre-determined outcome an unscrupulous pollster may hope for. Similarly, as with Blumenthal's earlier efforts to examine the disparity of Exit Poll Results vs. Final Election Results in last November's Presidential Election, his approach presumes from the get-go that the polling, not the results, are incorrect...and now we just need to figure out why.

Fair enough, in general. No doubt the articles we've written about the Ohio '05 election results, as well as the one from Fitrakis and Wasserman at Free Press, tend to presume that the election results are suspect, more so than the polling or its methodology.

The difference, however, is that while we welcome the search for reasons why the Dispatch's historically accurate poll might suddenly have failed for the first time in such an unprecedented matter, we have as much or more reason to be skeptical of Ohio's Electoral System which has been documented as full of unquestionable corruption and all-sorts of top-to-bottom malfeasance. Particularly over the last year or so since the Presidential Election.

In other words: Sure, we can, and should, go looking for reasons why the Dispatch poll might have failed so mightily for the first time in its history, as others (including Blumenthal) did with the Exit Polls from November '04 which also --- just a coincidence, we know --- failed so hugely for the first time in their history. We can likely find anomalies to somewhat explain what might justify a pre-determined conclusion that Election Results are right and Pre-Election Polling must be wrong. But why would Blumenthal, or anybody else, have reason to believe that scientifically run polls with methodologies developed and honed over decades, run by pollsters with (theoretically) no dog in the hunt, should be less reliable than an Electoral System being run on newly developed, newly introduced technology employing secret software that nobody inspects for validity or integrity? All of which is run on machines which have a tremendous and documented known failure rate and are run by partisan officials with not just a stake in the outcome, but whose very livelihoods (in the case of the recent Ohio initiatives, as well as last November's election) are at stake in the final results. ...

Boston Globe highlights the abject failure of the Republican led Congress to perform their oversight duties, pointing to --- amongst many other examples --- the 140 hours of sworn testimony taken on Bill Clinton's Christmas cards versus just 12 hours taken about Abu Ghraib.

Pre-empting the partisan issues involved here, the Globe points out that the Democratic-controlled House in '93-'94 held 135 "oversight" or investigative hearings during the Clinton Administration, while the GOP House was only able to muster 37 such hearings last year with Bush in the White House.

In the meantime, Kevin Horrigan in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch highlights the "transcript" from one of those rare hearings...

(Hat-tip to RAW STORY for the Globe link and to my father for Chicken Little.)

Stephen Oravecz of Mahoning Valley's Tribune Chronicle notices that there were a few problems in Ohio's ‘04 Presidential Election, and more problems persist still today...

Fadiman is a wonderful filmmaker, citizen and human being, by the way, who we've come to know since first meeting her at the Election Reform Conference in Nashville earlier this year. We've also been interviewed for the documentary mentioned above. Whether we'll make the final cut will remain to be seen

Oravecz also discusses the still un-reported recent non-partisan GAO report confirming the problems with Electronic Voting Machines that we've tried to make noise about (to little, but somewhat growing, avail) of late:

Also, an editorial in yesterday's Star-Gazette in New York references the GAO Report.

And in this week's Rock River Times, in Illinois, Senior Editor Joe Baker notices as well.

So that's one paper in New York, and another one called "Times". We guess we're getting closer...

Keep sending those cards and letters, people! The wingnut (ironcally enough) Townhall.com makes it very easy for you to do so! And yes...as you can see above...it matters!

Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell's press release says the November 8th election was "a great success" and "a great day for Ohio voters."

And, what do you know? Diebold agrees!

The story on the ground in Lucas County, OH, however, seems to tell a very different story. More than just the 14 voting machines left in a hallway unattended for 10 days at the University of Toledo as reported by Joshua Boak in the Toledo Blade (so much for that secure chain of custody!), dozens of investigations are now underway in Lucas County for all number of problems that occurred on Election Day two weeks ago according to another Blade report, this one from Boak along with Jane Schmucker...

Note, that the investigation will begin after the results are already certified.

And a few more troubling items from the same article...

And finally, let's not forget that Lucas County is where Bernadette Noe, the head of their Board of Elections and Republican Party --- as well as the wife of indicted "CoinGate" hustler Thomas Noe - reportedly was found to have been instrumental in gaming the November ‘04 Presidential Election in that county.

Guest Blogged by John Gideon of VotersUnite.org

Ohio is continuing as the ‘poster child' for how not to run elections. One presiding judge in a polling site in Lucas County, OH reported that at the end of election night the paper record was blank on the two busiest voting machines at one polling site. The rovers who came to close his precinct told him they hoped the votes were stored on the memory cards or in the machines themselves, but did not appear as concerned as Mr. Small. He said he left with no confidence that the votes from those machines were counted. And on the day following the election Blackwell told the press that the election was a complete success? Meanwhile the news from Georgia is unbelievable as it pertains to the VoterID issue. See the articles below for more on this story. ...

The toon above was posted at HuffPo by Mamet, the day after the recent party at Arianna's (see this link about the party, if you didn't read it already, for a bit of additional trivia re: my relationship with Mamet who was also there that night.)

As well, if you missed it earlier this week at BRAD BLOG, HuffPo has cross-posted my followup article to my original piece on "The Staggeringly Impossible Results of Ohio's '05 Election" Please see the HuffPo version of the follow-up to enjoy the postings of a few always-amusing anti-democracy troll commenters there.

I will have an additional update tomorrow on the Ohio stuff as well, btw. Stay tuned...

Guest blogged by Winter Patriot

Robert Parry's Consortium News has recently posted a beautifully-written piece by William Frey, M.D., called "Confessions of a Repentant Republican".

Dr. Frey is a former Bush supporter who has torn himself away from the propaganda and re-engaged with reality. And now he's writing about it. He can really write, too. Look at this:

A great introduction, is it not? Who could argue with such a reasonable presentation?

Guest blogged by David Edwards
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Guest Blogged by John Gideon of VotersUnite.org

It must be made clear that the lawsuit in North Carolina is NOT a suit against Diebold. Joyce McCloy only intervened in Diebold's legal action with the state. The News-Observer (see below) got it incorrect in their headline. And, it looks like the folks in Pasquotank Co., NC have decided to ignore that fact that their voting machines (ES&S Votronic DREs) accounted for 42 fewer ballots cast than voters who voted. This is an unprecedented, in that county, number of blank votes. That is 42 people who took the time to go to the polls, stood in line, signed-in, went to the machines, decided not to vote, signed-off of the machines and left after getting their “I Voted” sticker; and this was the only race on the ballot....

Some fan mail this morning asks "on what planet did you learn English?"...

Our answer...The same planet on which the sender apparently learned to cherry-pick the information he chooses to read and use as the basis for an argument. Sigh...

++++EXAMPLE: If this emailer went to a restaraunt and ordered a steak and the steak involved was to be served medium-well as he ordered it, we suppose he'd have no problem when the steak was delivered to his table completely uncooked. After all, he got his steak and there is "EXACTLY ZERO DIFFERENCE" between what he asked for and what he received.

++++FURTHER EXAMPLE: Using the emailer's bullet-proof logic, if we were to refer to him as "a stupid prick," but he was really just stupid and not a prick at all, it would mean the "EXACT SAME THING!!"

(P.S. For other material the emailer chose to not notice from Murtha's original resolution --- above and beyond the stuff he chose to not notice in even the text he did quote in his impressive email --- see this previous item for the complete text of both Murtha's resolution, and the phony GOP resolution cyncially created to play politics with our troops instead of supporting them.)

Guest blogged by Winter Patriot

There's a ton of important new material on the blog at the moment and I wouldn't want to distract you from it. But on the other hand I do want to share some of what I've been reading this evening, for those who are interested...

Guest Blogged by John Gideon of VotersUnite.org

Today it appears that California has decided to change their procedures for certifying voting systems so those procedures favor certification of the Diebold TSx. At the same time a lawsuit has been filed against favors to Diebold in North Carolina.

From Georgia we learn that the chief sponsor of Georgia's voter identification law told the Justice Department that if black people in her district "are not paid to vote, they don't go to the polls," and that if fewer blacks vote as a result of the new law, it is only because it would end such voting fraud. And DoJ staff recommended that the Attorney General object to this law, but the AG ignored that advice and he gave his approval. Last month a judge suspended the law because it represents a poll-tax....

In what can only be described as a cynical and partisan last minute stunt by the Republican-controlled House of Representative, GOP leaders have announced a sudden vote this evening on the "Murtha Resolution" which had called for the immediate phasing out of troops in Iraq and a deployment of a "quick-reaction U.S. force" of Marines in the region should trouble arise.

The GOP-modified version of Murtha's resolution, which had given numerous reasons for his call for a pull-out has starkly changed both the language and meaning of the original resolution in hopes that Republicans can force Democrats onto the record voting in favor of, or against, "immediate termination" of forces in Iraq.

The BRAD BLOG has obtained PDF versions of both the original Murtha Resolution [PDF] as well as the 3-line GOP-Amended version [PDF] version being put forward by House Leadership for the last minute vote this evening.

Congressman Murtha (D-PA) is a long time Iraq war hawk, strong advocate of the military and a combat veteran of both the Vietnam and Korean conflicts. In an emotional statement yesterday, he had called for the pullout of U.S. troops from Iraq.

After the preamble in Murtha's original resolution, which gives numerous reasons to support his call for troop withdrawal, the following statement is made:

The GOP revision, however, includes no preamble, and states that all troops will be removed immediately. This is it, in its entirety:

The AP has more on the all-out political melee now occuring on the House floor...

MORE... Debate/Vote scheduled for 7pm ET ... C-Span's live coverage here. (thanks for link to DaveF of Bare Knuckle Politics!)

As the State of California appears to now be bending over backwards in an attempt to give their elections to Diebold as reported earlier today, a lawsuit has been quietly filed in North Carolina by the http://www.eff.org\">Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) to ensure that Diebold must play be the same rules as other vendors and that they abide by state law which they have been attempting to skirt through court filings.

Today EFF announced that they were going to court to prevent Diebold Elections Systems, Inc. from evading the North Carolina law which requires Voting Machine Companies to place their source code into escrow with the state. Diebold, one of America's largest Voting Machine Companies, apparently doesn't want to and has recently received a court-waiver to allow them to avoid doing so.

From EFF's press release issued today...

(Hat-tips to both John Gideon and David Edwards for alerting us to this story.)

Election reform advocates had hoped Diebold touch-screen voting machines would be permanently decertified in the country's largest "voting market" (as Diebold likes to refer to it) after a massive test of their AccuVote DRE machines earlier this year revealed a 20% failure rate. But a more recent test, secretly held at Diebold Election System's McKinney Texas headquarters, apparently in violation of California state law, has resulted in what appears to be a last minute about-face from California's Republican Sec. of State, Bruce McPhereson. The latest news has now thrown everything into doubt in the state concerning the future of electronic voting here.

Miriam Raftery of RAW STORY has the full skinny. Something smells very rotten in the state of California.