Not that I hope to tip off our degenerate authoritarian oligarchy on today’s BradCast. But if the Republican Party still believes in math (and it’s unclear if they do), there was more very bad news for them in Tuesday’s elections this week. [Audio link to full show follows this summary.]
Unapologetically progressive Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn appears to have lost the Special Election race for the U.S. House in Tennessee‘s very “red”, GOP-gerrymandered 7th Congressional District to stalwart Trump Republican Matt Van Epps on Tuesday. Unofficial numbers suggest she lost by about 9 points.
Sounds like a rout. But, in fact, it really wasn’t. Trump won the district last year by 22 points, meaning there was a 13 point shift toward Democrats on Tuesday, precisely the average shift that we have seen toward Dems in all of the Special Elections for U.S. House this year. There are 14 counties in TN’s 7th CD. Everyone of them shifted towards the left on Tuesday. That, after Republicans were forced to dump a lot of money into what should have been an easy contest on Tuesday.
While House Speaker Mike Johnson pretended not to be concerned about any of this — “They were really trying to set the scenario that there’s some sort of wave going on. There’s not. We just proved that there’s not.” — actual math really does suggest trouble ahead for the GOP in next year’s critical 2026 midterm cycle.
With that average 13 point shift toward Democrats in special elections this year, we do a little bit of mathing on today’s show. For example, last year, in the 2024 U.S. House general elections…
- 28 Republicans won their races by 10 percent or less.
- 64 of them won by 12 points or less.
- And a whopping 92 Republicans won by just 15 percent or less last year.
With a razor-thin 3 vote advantage heading into the new year, no wonder several GOP-controlled states are attempting panicked mid-decade gerrymanders, and that the corrupt Republicans on the U.S. Supreme Court are likely to help them. But new maps may ultimately make their problems worse, not better, if this year’s elections are any indication. Safe Republican districts made less safe with new gerrymanders to steal districts from Democratic voters may end up backfiring. Of course, I won’t dismiss Democrats’ ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory between now and next year. But when Johnson says, “This doesn’t concern me at all,” he is either lying, in denial or incredibly stupid. And he’s not all that stupid.
“This is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we’ve seen yet for Republicans,” a far more realistic GOP strategist observed last night. Much more on today’s show.
As if that’s not enough, in a stunning runoff election on Tuesday in Georgia, the Democratic candidate easily unseated the incumbent Republican Mayor in the suburban city of Roswell, outside of Atlanta. She will be the previously deep “red” city’s first Democratic Mayor in nearly 30 years. But don’t worry, Mike. All’s well!
Also today, our disgusting racist President said a whole bunch of disgusting racist things at the White House on Tuesday about Somalia and the American Somali population in Minnesota and elsewhere, repeatedly describing them as “garbage”, “people who don’t work,” and people who should “go back to where they came from.” Where many of them came from is a war-torn nation in Africa, with thousands seeking refuge here in the 90s. Most of them are now American citizens, with many living in Minnesota, where Trump’s degenerate federal jack-booted immigration thugs will reportedly be targeting them, specifically in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region, with upcoming raids.
State Governor Tim Walz — who Trump last week described as “retarded” — as well as the Minneapolis Mayor, its Chief of Police and many other officials and immigration advocates are vowing not to roll over to Trump’s racist immigration hooliganism. Similar raids are reportedly being launched this week in New Orleans, where residents are also hoping to push back against Trump’s increasingly unpopular thuggery however they can.
Finally today, Desi Doyen has our latest Green News Report (after we had to preempt yesterday), with news on the end of disappointing U.N. climate talks in Brazil; the rising death toll following two simultaneous climate change-fueled typhoons in Southeast Asia; and the Trump Administration‘s latest plans to pollute your air and poison your drinking water…
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