As I was trying to get to sleep this morning, I wondered about the wild differences between the Exit Polling numbers, which strongly favored Kerry, versus the Final Results which narrowly favored Bush.

Given the statement in August of 2003 by Walden O'dell, the CEO of Deibold Inc., the Ohio-based company and the nation's #1 maker of Electronic Voting Machines there is reason to be suspicious.

He wrote in a fund-raising letter to Ohio Republicans last year that he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."

As I lay in bed, trying to make sense of what still makes little sense, I had hoped to look today into how much the Exit Poll results varied from the Final Results in states and districts where there was Electronic Voting versus the difference in states where paper ballots etc. were in use.

Looks like Raw Story has begun to do exactly that. UPDATE: Here is a graphic representation of the information that the Raw Story article details.

Their early investigation shows that in states where E-voting with no paper trails were used, there was an enormous difference --- always in favor of Bush --- between the Exit Polls and the Final Results. Whereas in the states with paper ballots or E-voting machines that provided a printed paper trail, the Exit Polling was within .01% of the Final Results. Look at those numbers yourself.

Perhaps the mainstream media will discover a sense of civic duty and look further into that. For some reason, I'm not holding my breath, and it'll probably fall to folks like us to do their heavy lifting for them.

Look also at the bizarre numbers that Oliver Willis discovered amongst the vote tabulations as they were coming out of Ohio's website last night. He supplies pictures, so it should be simple for you wingnuts to understand.

And on Nov. 1, the day before the election, BlackBoxVoting.org --- a site which has been warning for some time of such concerns - issued an urgent release which began:

I am pleased to see that that group has now filed "Freedom of Information Act" petitions for the audit logs of Electronic Voting machines in many states, given that they found some three hours of missing data from such audit logs six weeks ago on a central computer in Washington during their primary elections there.

Finally, I wonder if anyone will follow up with Karl Rove's statement to Sean Hannity on Sept. 29th when he said "We've got a couple of surprises that we intend to spring."

Now that the election is over and won, perhaps Mr. Rove could elucidate on what those "surprises" actually were.

Anyone in the media willing to take your job seriously enough to ask him?

It's only been an hour or two, but the spinning and cynically opportunistic misinterpretation by the zealots of President-Elect Bush's victory has already begun. As expected.

Never mind that a man who received a "free" all-expense-paid four-year campaign commercial masquerading as "President" could claim only a slim 1% victory over his contender, with more Americans voting against him than any candidate in history, the Right has already begun the spin (as evidenced in comments here) that even the moderates in America support Bush.

Andrew Sullivan quotes Noam Scheiber putting some truth to that earliest of lies:

Adding to that, I associate myself with Josh Marshall who saw the Bush/Cheney statements today claiming a "a broad, nationwide victory" as ominous writing on the sleaze-room wall:

I'll have more on that "same strategy" and the ugliness it required to win a 1% majority victory as the day goes on...

CORRECTION 11/4/04: As pointed out by reader "Jeff", I said above that Bush "could claim only a slim 1% victory over his contender" I should have said "a slim 1% victory over his contenders" since Bush received 51% of the popular vote. As well, "Jeff" pointed out that I said Bush had "more Americans voting against him than any candidate in history". That was misleading as well. What I should have said was Bush had "more Americans voting against him than any Republican candidate in history". A seemingly good source to check on these matters is right here. BRAD BLOG regrets both the errors and the sleepless haze in which they were written.

For some reason I decided to get in a few hours of sleep this morning. So I'm just beginning to catch up on all that's transpired since I went to bed. Much analysis and opinion to come today no doubt.

There will be plenty of time for the hand-wringing and discussions of the Right's Victory of Hate and Fear over Hope and Courage.

For the moment though, as I begin to get caught up, read the ominous tea-leaves of what Bush's statement today foretold, and catch up with comments and email here, I think the words of The Freeway Blogger say it best:

It's incredible to be saying it again four years later, but here we go again.

Fox "News" pulled the rope-a-dope. After laying back all night and calling most of the close states about an hour later than everyone else, they threw one good sucker punch at 12:41am ET. While folks were still, apparently, in line voting in Ohio --- where some some precincts were reported having to stay open to accomodate voters until 1am ET --- Fox called Ohio for Bush. Drudge quickly followed, announcing "BUSH WINS" with siren, and the storyline of the night and the morning papers was set. Before the votes were counted. Just as in 2000.

Though clearly I'm disappointed that my predictions of a decisive Kerry victory and a Democrat Senate majority have not come to pass, I am pleased to see that the Dems have promised this time to make all attempts to ensure that every vote gets counted. I think that's a fine idea for the world's oldest and most important Democracy.

Of note, in 2000, the GOP proved rather unimpressed with the fact that Gore received the majority of the Popular vote, arguing instead that only the Electoral vote mattered.

They were correct in that at the time. Like it or not, the Electoral College is our system. Though I wonder however, with the apparent if majority Popular vote this time, if they may come to regret that ardent 2000 position. Or if, as is their pattern, they'll soon begin claiming the "voice of the people has spoken" and develop their usual case of amnesia to "all that went before".

In 2000, Gore had the popular vote as the moral wind beneath his wings to press forward and request the counting of the ballots in Florida. Today, it seems, Kerry may not have the Popular vote in his favor. But he does have Bush's own disregard for that Popular vote in 2000 beneath his wings which he would be correct to remind folks about as he makes his case to continue until an acccurate Electoral vote can be determined.

Additionally, it seems a reminder is in order that it was the Bush campaign who brought a lawsuit to the Supreme Court to challenge the counting of ballots in Florida. It was not those "litigious Democrats" as they seem to enjoy inferring. Again, with disregard to facts, history, and all of the pesky truths from the Reality-Based World.

I'll need more time, of course, to make full sense of exactly what happened in America today, as it seems to me there's much more of this story still to come. Clearly, no matter what the final results, they are a good deal short of what I had hoped for and expected.

In short, however, if the numbers hold up, and if indeed Kerry loses, it will have been a sad, yet stark victory of Hate and Fear over Hope and Courage.

And at the shameful and dirty heart of it all...a case of good old fashioned American homophobia that will have won the day.

More details on that...and everything else, no doubt...in the days to come...after a few hours sleep.

LATEST...
· 12:31am PT: AMERICABlog: "ABC News just reported at 3 in the morning that people are still lined up and voting in at least TWO precincts in Ohio --- including predominantly college students at one polling area."
· 12:15am PT: None of the nets have called NV, but Yahoo has a few mins ago. For Bush. First time they've called one before the nets.
· AMERICABlog: Witnesses/Photos in OH, "the truck the ballots for 40 precincts were loaded into - had a big Bush-Cheney 2004 sticker in the back window". Follow link for photo and details.
· Oliver Willis: Early OH website count showed big irregularities. Why? Graphics at his site.
· Even if NV, NM, and IA all go to Bush, Kerry wins if he takes OH, 272 - 266!
· SALON: Thousands turned away without provisional ballots in OHIO
· 11:39pm PT: Current Electoral: BUSH 249 - Kerry 242
· 11:35pm PT: Pat Buchanan on MSNBC, "If every state leaning Bush goes Bush, and every state leaning Kerry goes Kerry, Bush DOES NOT WIN without OHIO"!
· 11:28pm PT: Edwards statement/appearance "We can wait one more night. We will fight for every vote!"
· 11:20pm PT: Bush team talking "acceptance speech". 2000-style GOP PsyOps in full play!
· Only 50% of Las Vegas counted. 5,000 vote diff. Raw Nevada Data
· 10:59pm PT: Counting machines broken down in IA. No final count can be made until Wed! - CNN
· 10:58pm PT: CNN - "As many as 600,000 uncounted votes still out".
· 10:52pm PT: CNN calls OH "Too Close to Call" - Apparently won't be calling it tonight.
· 2000 DEJA VU: FOX calls it for Bush before anyone else, Drudge gives Presidency to Bush. Meantime, OH vote still out. Even without OH for Kerry, a 269-269 tie possible. Not necessarily probable, but possible. Kerry statement: "It takes 270 win".
· 10:22pm PT - OH: 86.69% precincts counted. 124,449 adv. Bush and getting smaller. CNN reports 150,000-200,000 provisional ballots uncounted.
· NBC and MSNBC call OH for Bush at 12:50am.
· FOX and FNC (only ones) call OH for BUSH! 15 minutes before polls close there! MMFA Reports: FNC calls at 12:41am ET; FOX calls at 12:44am ET - People still voting until 1am in OH!
· Do the math yourself right here.
· Raw State Website Results: Oh my OHIO!

CURRENT ELECTORAL: (270 needed to win)
BUSH - 254 ..... KERRY - 252
(According to Yahoo, who has given Nevada to Bush for some reason. 2:19am PT)

Graphic should update when you refresh the page. Click it for details...

UPDATE: 11:10am PT Reporting the same that we're hearing everywhere. Lines at my polling place were like none I've ever seen. I did, however, vote much earlier than I usually do, so I asked a long time poll worker what it's been like in comparison to the past. Their reply; "It's been non-stop. I've never seen it like this".

One more notable observation - In my decade of voting at the same polling place, I don't believe I've ever seen a single poll worker under the age of 75. Today, however, I was signed in by someone who was 20 if he was a day, confirmed by a woman who was mid to late 30's, and there were at least twice as many poll workers total as I've ever seen before.

It's a great day for Democracy. So far.

Here's my prediction for today from Oct. 11th, that I am still standing by. It's called "The Blueing of America".

UPDATE: 11:23am PT Let's hope Drudge --- with siren --- has this one right!

If accurate, that report is extremely notable as the first wave of exit polls usually favors Republicans since they historically vote earlier. On the other hand, with Drudge running it, it could be a warning shout-out for the wingnuts to get to the polls! Rush is already discounting the report as "unimportant".

UPDATE: 11:48am PT Rush going out of his way to find any way to discount those exit polls! Including a report from a "Republican Insider" source who he "cannot name" who says they cannot confirm the above report. Right.

UPDATE: 12:27pm PT Hannity in a panic on the radio, though trying to keep up a good game face. Drudge now modifies his report to add "...But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio" and both Rush and Sean are sticking with that part of the story.

Here are the actual early numbers as reported by Drudge, but quickly taken down from his site. They were also reported elsewhere:

UPDATE: 12:41pm PT Newt on Sean reports again on the already discredited Philly E-machine story. Desperation at work.

UPDATE: 12:57pm PT Slate has slightly different numbers on a few states than the ones posted above. They seem more in line with reality to me. As well, they have notable reports for Nevada and North Carolina!

UPDATE: 1:30pm PT "A VIEW FROM THE RIGHT....Panic at The Corner" via Kevin Drum.

Keep an eye on the live panicky monkey chatter here.

UPDATE: 2:11pm PT Third round of exit polling data. This time from Raw Story.

These look very good. Though I believe I've been deficient in cautioning against irrational exhuberance and to encourage you to take these numbers with several grains of salt. None the less, the early words seem well in favor of Good over Evil.

UPDATE: 2:35pm PT Zogby's Final Call (as of 5pm ET):

Bush: 213
Kerry: 311
Too Close To Call: NV(4) and CO(9)

(Thanks Jaime for all various updated!)

UPDATE: 2:50pm PT 4pm ET exit poll data from Slate. Kerry's lead is holding and improving if these numbers are any good. Note that states like CO and NV are seriously in play. Not a good sign for BushCo by any stretch of the imagination.

UPDATE: 3:02pm PT Mystery Pollster gives good reason to be very cautious about these exit poll numbers! Consider yourself warned. Stop reading these numbers and GET OUT THE VOTE!

UPDATE: 3:09pm PT "Nothing is real" --- an apt phrase from the monkey corner:

Nope. No "panice" there.

UPDATE: 3:29pm PT Again from Slate...And not as wide a national margin as I'd like it to be! Get to work peeps!:

UPDATE: 3:46pm PT Drudge, who had previously stopped reporting exit data, has resumed with a bit:

First real poll closing and possible real numbers in 15 minutes...Developing...

UPDATE: 4:02pm PT First official calls from MSNBC...

PROJECTED FOR BUSH:
Indiana, Georgia, Kentucky

TOO CLOSE TO CALL:
Virginia
KY Senate race
SC Senate race

TOO EARLY TO CALL:
South Carolina

UPDATE: 4:12pm PT Final 6pm ET exit poll numbers from Raw Story...

UPDATE: 4:24pm PT From Drudge now...in red...

What does that tell you? --- By the way, the fact that Virginia and the KY senate races are too close to call should tell you much.

Ohio real numbers in 5 minutes...DEVELOPING...

UPDATE: 4:30pm PT From MSNBC...Notable tea leaves...

TOO CLOSE TO CALL:
Ohio (no surprise)
North Carolina(!)
Virginia(!)
North Carolina Senate Race(!)
South Carolina Senate Race(!)
Kentucky Senate Race(!)

Yo, Vegas peeps! Get to work!

UPDATE: 5:04pm PT From MSNBC...

KERRY WINS!
Illinois
New Jersey (no surprise, despite last week's fake psyop spin from the monkeys)
Massachussetts
Maryland
Connecticut
Maine
Delaware
D.C.

BUSH WINS
Tennessee
Alabama
Oklahoma

TOO CLOSE TO CALL:
Florida (surprised?
Missouri (!)

CURRENT ELECTORAL: (on both MSNBC and FOX)
Bush - 66
Kerry - 77

UPDATE: 5:15pm PT A little help from your friends? Fox calls South Carolina for Bush! Haven't seen it called anywhere else yet though....DEVELOPING...

UPDATE: 5:39pm PT LIVE and REAL Ohio Numbers here. I don't like the current percentages, but I don't know the order of reporting precincts.

CNN calls North Carolina and South Carolina for Bush (not a surprise, but would have been nice to win)

CNN's CURRENT ELECTORAL:
Bush: 102
Kerry: 77

UPDATE: 6:56pm PT Begala on CNN reports that absentee ballots from the three biggest FL counties (Palm Beach, Broward and...Volusia?) won't be counted until Thursday! Have forgotten how many votes he said that was, 400,000 or so? Urgh...

UPDATE: 7:43pm PT | NEW UPDATES WILL BE UP IN THE NEXT ENTRY...Nail-biter, huh?

Take a look at each of these videos created by Fin of "What We Know" if you haven't seen them already. If you have, give them one last look and send them to your friends today!

How Did it Come to This?

Angry? Start Over!

Lone Wolf

(Not by Fin! But Amazing!)

Wondering what happened to that bogus little Schwarzkopf story that headlined Drudge all day today? The one claiming that the DNC was sending out faked auto-phonecalls to voters in swing states supposedly from the General endorsing Kerry? That story that all the wingnuts were going on and on about all day?

Turns out it wasn't the DNC who created the fake. Surprised? I didn't think so. Atrios has all the goods.

And no, Drudge's incorrect story does not appear in his archives. When he gets it wrong --- as he frequently does --- the evidence disappears along with the truth.

UPDATE: Something odd going on with Atrios' links. If the one above doesn't work, go to Atrios' main page and scroll down to the "Funny Monkeys" story that I was trying to link to originally here.

UPDATE: Another Drudge story, appearing today and still there, about problems with E-machines in Philly, is also wrong. Beware the Rightwing Blogs/Websites/Radio Shows today! They are inventing the case they intend to make tonight in the event that it's close. Which it won't be.

Over the course of at least the last six months, we believe we have laid out the irrefutably damning case against George W. Bush on this blog and have demonstrated honest and specific evidence for that case in these pages.

His historically unprecedented failures and deficiencies as both "President" and "Commander-in-Chief" of this country have been well documented here and elsewhere for anyone who has been willing and able to look beyond their own partisan biases at the stark and plain truth of those failures.

To that end, the BRAD BLOG strongly anti-endorses George W. Bush for President.

We believe that Mr. Bush deserves a swift and decisive removal from office and every American should do anything within their power to help achieve that aim and --- in doing so --- see to it that our long national nightmare may finally be over.

If you happen to vote in a state where you feel the results of the election may be close in any way, shape or form, we recommend you support your country and the world you live in by voting proudly for John Kerry.

If you happen to vote in a "red" state, we also recommend that you support your country and the world you live in by voting for John Kerry as I believe that if you do, Mr. Bush may well receive a few surprises on Election Day. Some previously "red" states may well magically find themselves turning "blue". As well, since it's important that a Kerry victory be decisive if there is to be even a remote chance of healing the partisan hell we've been through for at least four years, a decisive popular majority for Kerry is essential.

Finally, if you live in a solid "blue" state, like myself, then I'd suggest you do as I plan to: Vote your conscience.

There are some very serious problems in our country and world right now, and almost all of them are directly tied to the failings and collusions of our corrupt monolithic two-party system.

I look forward with great anticipation to a Kerry victory so that honest, informed Americans, who have witnessed what has happened to our country over the last 20 years, may soon stand some hope of beginning to correct the dangerous governmental/corporate corrosive course that is tearing our society and civilization apart at it's very core. Unfortunately, the fissures in that core now run directly and painfully through your house, your pocket book, and your true and honest American values.

That long course will be a difficult one even with John Kerry in office. It will be nothing short of impossible, however, with George W. Bush --- a man with neither understanding nor sympathy for anything resembling true, core, American values --- occupying his destructive helm for another four years.

To that end, I encourage you, dear BRAD BLOG readers, to do what you must on Election Day to help change the course of history and our beloved country by removing George W. Bush --- once and for all --- from the office he never should have occupied in the first place.

Quoting again from a great American: You have the power! You have the power! You have the power!

Now get out and use that power to vote and to get out the vote and, in doing so, help save your world.

Well, your email paid off! As much, perhaps, as we could hope given that we're dealing with the Republican behemoth that is the Fox "News" Channel. So all in all, a job well done, guys! It pays to make noise and fight for your Democracy.

As originally reported here, the Hannity & Colmes show had announced on Friday that tonight's guests would be:

ON THE RIGHT: Karl Rove, Dick Morris, William Weld
ON THE LEFT: Bill Richardson

By the time tonight's show aired, Morris and Weld on the Right were dumped, and Terry McAuliffe added on the Left. Unfortunately, Jeb Bush (obviously on the Right) was added as well. Yet, on it's face, it appeared to be more "Fair and Balanced" as such:

ON THE RIGHT: Karl Rove, Jeb Bush
ON THE LEFT: Bill Richardson, Terry McAuliffe

Well, that looks more "Fair & Balanced", doesn't it? But here was the actual show breakdown (Right leaning segments bold)

SEGMENT 1: Jeb Bush
SEGMENT 2: Jeb Bush
SEGMENT 3: Bill Richardson
SEGMENT 4: Karl Rove
(Seg 4 Rove interview by Hannity only! Colmes not allowed!)
SEGMENT 5: Terry McAuliffe

Final tally was 3 segments with the Right (one that Hannity had all to himself) and only 2 segments with the Left.

As I've mentioned in the past, my source inside H&C tells me that they have a very difficult time getting the DNC and Kerry campaign to cooperate and give them guests for the show. The theory --- a mostly plausible one --- is that Fox is so far to the Right, the Dems feel they won't get a fair shake when they go on.

I share my sources belief, however, that it's foolish for the Dems to simply write off Fox "News" in the bargain.

Yes, of course they won't get a fair shake on Fox, but it's better to show up and represent as best they can than to allow Fox to overweight with Republicans, or worse, stick someone like Pat Cadell on there and call him a "Democratic Consultant" when he hasn't worked or supported any Democrats since, I believe, Jimmy Carter! Or have Susan Estrich on there --- who worked for Arnold Schwarzenegger! --- and call her a "Democratic Consultant".

Like it or not, more Americans watch Fox these days for political news than anybody else --- and it's not all hard right wingnuts. There are a lot of reasonable, normal, Left-leaning Americans that watch FNC as well! I'm certainly one of them! Frankly because it's not quite as dull as it's competition (who are only slightly less slanted to the Right these days). So it's imperative that Dems show up and at least fight on that turf to try anyway to partially balance Fox's constant imbalance.

If I hear from my source any plausible explanation as to why H&C still managed to skew things to the Right tonight, on Election Eve of all nights --- even though they had a seemingly even number of Democrats to interview --- I'll update this item.

Other than that, I'm without ammunition to defend it. So instead, I'll just leave you with this exchange from the end of the segment tonight with McAuliffe:

I guess it is.

Last night, wingnut blog "Little Green Footballs" posted about the "missing 12 minutes" from the Osama bin Laden tapes and quoted from a NY Post story about it. Here's some of what they quoted as being in the "missing 12 minutes":

Unfortunately for them (and frankly for everyone in America) the full transcript of the tape has now been posted by Al Jazeera. It says nothing of the kind.

Still, if these guys can make the argument that "bin Laden endorses Kerry!" they'll be happy to use this terrorist to support their own desperate campaign to pull victory from the jaws of imminent defeat.

Many of the Rightwing blogs have been posting the same, and of course, not bothering to update their posts with the corrected info --- showing that they were wrong --- once the full transcript came out.

These online polls are read on the air! Their emotional effect on the electorate is NOT TO BE DISCOUNTED! Balance the lack of balance in their viewership/listenership by voting NOW!

Hannity's poll (bottom left on page):
Who do you think Bin Laden was endorsing in his recent tape?
BUSH or Kerry?

O'Reilly's poll:
Who do you think will win the election?
Bush or KERRY?

UPDATE: This MSNBC Poll also needs help!

It's now all in the PsyOps folks! As I'm sure Karl Rove would be happy to tell you!

No, not Iraq. Voting in California!

The California Voter's Guide mailed to us is 165 pages! And the supplemental is another 21 pages!

At least 16 State Propositions and about 5 local ones...Yeesh. What the hell do we bother to elect a state legislature for anyway?!

This is getting ridiculous! And as California goes...so goes the country. Beware!

ABC producers tested the T-shirt experiment of wearing Kerry shirts to a Bush event, and Bush shirts to a Kerry event. At the Bush events they were either not allowed in or tossed out. The worst treatment received at the Kerry event was folks who danced around them with big signs in order to obstruct the view of the Bush shirts by TV cameras. (emphasis mine)