LATEST…
· 12:31am PT: AMERICABlog: “ABC News just reported at 3 in the morning that people are still lined up and voting in at least TWO precincts in Ohio — including predominantly college students at one polling area.”
· 12:15am PT: None of the nets have called NV, but Yahoo has a few mins ago. For Bush. First time they’ve called one before the nets.
· AMERICABlog: Witnesses/Photos in OH, “the truck the ballots for 40 precincts were loaded into – had a big Bush-Cheney 2004 sticker in the back window”. Follow link for photo and details.
· Oliver Willis: Early OH website count showed big irregularities. Why? Graphics at his site.
· Even if NV, NM, and IA all go to Bush, Kerry wins if he takes OH, 272 – 266!
· SALON: Thousands turned away without provisional ballots in OHIO
· 11:39pm PT: Current Electoral: BUSH 249 – Kerry 242
· 11:35pm PT: Pat Buchanan on MSNBC, “If every state leaning Bush goes Bush, and every state leaning Kerry goes Kerry, Bush DOES NOT WIN without OHIO”!
· 11:28pm PT: Edwards statement/appearance “We can wait one more night. We will fight for every vote!”
· 11:20pm PT: Bush team talking “acceptance speech”. 2000-style GOP PsyOps in full play!
· Only 50% of Las Vegas counted. 5,000 vote diff. Raw Nevada Data
· 10:59pm PT: Counting machines broken down in IA. No final count can be made until Wed! – CNN
· 10:58pm PT: CNN – “As many as 600,000 uncounted votes still out”.
· 10:52pm PT: CNN calls OH “Too Close to Call” – Apparently won’t be calling it tonight.
· 2000 DEJA VU: FOX calls it for Bush before anyone else, Drudge gives Presidency to Bush. Meantime, OH vote still out. Even without OH for Kerry, a 269-269 tie possible. Not necessarily probable, but possible. Kerry statement: “It takes 270 win”.
· 10:22pm PT – OH: 86.69% precincts counted. 124,449 adv. Bush and getting smaller. CNN reports 150,000-200,000 provisional ballots uncounted.
· NBC and MSNBC call OH for Bush at 12:50am.
· FOX and FNC (only ones) call OH for BUSH! 15 minutes before polls close there! MMFA Reports: FNC calls at 12:41am ET; FOX calls at 12:44am ET – People still voting until 1am in OH!
· Do the math yourself right here.
· Raw State Website Results: Oh my OHIO!
CURRENT ELECTORAL: (270 needed to win)
BUSH – 254 ….. KERRY – 252
(According to Yahoo, who has given Nevada to Bush for some reason. 2:19am PT)
Graphic should update when you refresh the page. Click it for details…
Fox hasn’t called FL yet, but its pretty much a given as of 12:10AM EST
http://www.opinionjournal.com/ecc/calculator.htm is another nice place to calculate the electoral college. Personally I prefer the layout, but thats just me.
PBS not calling Ohio!
~e.
PBS not calling Ohio! CBS holding out as well.
~e.
PBS not calling Ohio! CBS holding out as well.
~e.
PBS not calling Ohio! CBS holding out as well.
~e.
pbs and CBS holding out on Ohio.
~e.
Damn refresh not working, hence the multiple entry – –
I took the time to show you the probabilities of Kerry winning Ohio – VERY unlikely.
===============================
Here are some simple mathematical calculations straight from the Ohio results by county.
87.12% of votes have been cast for a total of 4,867,086
President Bush has a 128,513 vote lead.
12.88% of votes are remaining for a total of 719,560 votes.
To win, John Kerry would need to get 128,514 more votes out of 719,560.
Not impossible, but very improbable from anyone knowing anything about statistics.
This would mean Kerry could be required to get 424,037 votes at a minimum to 295,524 for Bush.
58.9% of the remaining votes to 41.1% would be the margin needed for Kerry to win.
In a state that is almost 50/50, and one that Bush has a large lead in, the odds are stacked against Kerry BIG TIME.
Pete Coors goes DOWN!
With the latest reports that Bush is up by 130,000 now and 250,000 votes are remaining, the odds go up even higher.
PBS NOT listing FOX News among the, "networks" making predictions. Instead listing AP, ABC, NBC, CBS and so declaring that, "Only one network has called Ohio thus far…".
~e.
NBC/MSNBC both called Ohio.
Okay, here’s the single most impressive piece of journalism we are likely to see during this election. Jim Lehrer just signed off the air at 10:38 pst saying that PBS/AP would not be able to call Ohio tonight and with the news that Kerry will NOT be conceding it they – – yet this, have nothing more to report! The other nets however, still have spots to sell. Except for FOX of course. They have an election co-opt.
~e.
Eric –
You sound bitter. You’ve failed to look at the math and the other network NBC/MSNBC giving it to Bush also.
Looks like Bush will win Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada. Keep up the conspiracy theories.
Hay, it’s not just me – – Wonkette’s Anna Marie Cox is freakishly HOT, no? Brad, if you looked like that I’d blog you at least one a day.
~e.
Bush won’t win Nevada…There’s only %55 reporting in Clark county, Las Vegas, the most liberal city in the country, with Kerry leading there by 51%-46%.
Wake up guys!
It ain’t over till it’s over.
Don’t believe the HYPE!
It doesn’t really matter about Nevada, but I wouldn’t consider a 5% lead in the most liberal area too much. I’m looking at an Electoral race close to my prediction – 289-249.
In other news, Zogby dropped the ball. When I saw him predicting Kerry for 311 EVs, I wondered what he was smoking. Seems he lost the magic (as was apparent in 2002)
You get for more years of Bush. 125,327 vote lead in Ohio with 3% remaining. Bush won this time, regardless.
"troll", just noticed your personal address to me. Thanks, but you can keep your math, I’ll wait for the count. The juvenile ad homen fallacy is noted but I tend to be more tart than bitter. Nice display of FOX worthy intellect but if it is Brad, Jaime, and myself in this blog, you’re clearly out of your depth.
~e.
Brad,
I think YOU need to wake up. Come on man, I understand you loathe Bush, but its over. Accept it.
Harvard Law’s Lawrence Tribe on CNN!!! Re: Provisional ballots…
it ain’t over until the Supreme Court sez it’s over.
it ain’t over until the Supreme Court sez it’s over.
Hopefully I like counting bullets? How mature.
So I’m a chickenhawk? Wow, your guy can’t win the election so you resort to name calling.
Why shouldn’t he claim a mandate! He won by over 3.5 million votes AND won the electoral college. You can’t blame baby brother Jeb this time.
Sometimes, people need to just accept defeat.
Brad – I hope that every vote gets counted. However, the amount of provisional ballots compared to the Bush lead in Ohio make the chances for a Kerry win extremely slim. I’ve pointed this out many times during the last 8 hours or so.
Hopefully, when the votes are counted, an intelligent person such as yourself will tip his hat, and concede the day. You can even take the counter off the BradBlog about having an elected President!
http://www.foxnews.com/
It is OOOOOOOOVER!!!!!!
Congratulations to George W. Bush, he has won this election, if not the hearts and minds of a tremendous majority.
I am glad this election was decided without litigation, though I still want every vote counted. Though it seems for good or bad, this administration is what a large amount of the people in this country think is best. Certainly they should know, right?
Thankfully those red states have informed, reasonable voters, with diversity aplenty for them to assess judgment from fact, and copious opportunity to have their ideas challenged and reconsidered. God Bless America, where every vote counts, for good or bad.
What could possibly go wrong?
Just popped in on the History Channel only to find an art card filling the screen. It read, "What good fortune for governments that people do not think" – Hitler
I can’t go to bed on that note!
~e.
Of course it is comforting that Fox is debating the question of Bush having won a true mandate, or just won the election?
Troll, what’s this problem you guys seem to have with COUNTING VOTES in America?!
Hopefully he likes counting bullets. Please, would you be so kind and go to the overwheelming success in Iraq and protect freedom from terror? Won’t do it, will ya Chickenhawk?
Eric, Bush will claim a mandate just like he did in 2000.