UPDATE: 11:10am PT Reporting the same that we’re hearing everywhere. Lines at my polling place were like none I’ve ever seen. I did, however, vote much earlier than I usually do, so I asked a long time poll worker what it’s been like in comparison to the past. Their reply; “It’s been non-stop. I’ve never seen it like this”.
One more notable observation – In my decade of voting at the same polling place, I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a single poll worker under the age of 75. Today, however, I was signed in by someone who was 20 if he was a day, confirmed by a woman who was mid to late 30’s, and there were at least twice as many poll workers total as I’ve ever seen before.
It’s a great day for Democracy. So far.
Here’s my prediction for today from Oct. 11th, that I am still standing by. It’s called “The Blueing of America”.
UPDATE: 11:23am PT Let’s hope Drudge — with siren — has this one right!
Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE…National Election Pool — representing six major news organization — shows Kerry in striking distance — with small lead — in Florida and Ohio…”
If accurate, that report is extremely notable as the first wave of exit polls usually favors Republicans since they historically vote earlier. On the other hand, with Drudge running it, it could be a warning shout-out for the wingnuts to get to the polls! Rush is already discounting the report as “unimportant”. 🙂
UPDATE: 11:48am PT Rush going out of his way to find any way to discount those exit polls! Including a report from a “Republican Insider” source who he “cannot name” who says they cannot confirm the above report. Right.
UPDATE: 12:27pm PT Hannity in a panic on the radio, though trying to keep up a good game face. Drudge now modifies his report to add “…But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio” and both Rush and Sean are sticking with that part of the story.
Here are the actual early numbers as reported by Drudge, but quickly taken down from his site. They were also reported elsewhere:
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
_Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41
UPDATE: 12:41pm PT Newt on Sean reports again on the already discredited Philly E-machine story. Desperation at work.
UPDATE: 12:57pm PT Slate has slightly different numbers on a few states than the ones posted above. They seem more in line with reality to me. As well, they have notable reports for Nevada and North Carolina!
Kerry 46 54 50 50 48 49
_Bush 53 45 49 49 50 51
UPDATE: 1:30pm PT “A VIEW FROM THE RIGHT….Panic at The Corner” via Kevin Drum.
Keep an eye on the live panicky monkey chatter here.
UPDATE: 2:11pm PT Third round of exit polling data. This time from Raw Story.
Kerry 49 58 52 52 51 49 57 53 50 58 49 48 45 47
_Bush 50 42 47 48 48 49 42 47 48 41 49 49 54 53
These look very good. Though I believe I’ve been deficient in cautioning against irrational exhuberance and to encourage you to take these numbers with several grains of salt. None the less, the early words seem well in favor of Good over Evil.
UPDATE: 2:35pm PT Zogby’s Final Call (as of 5pm ET):
Bush: 213
Kerry: 311
Too Close To Call: NV(4) and CO(9)
(Thanks Jaime for all various updated!)
UPDATE: 2:50pm PT 4pm ET exit poll data from Slate. Kerry’s lead is holding and improving if these numbers are any good. Note that states like CO and NV are seriously in play. Not a good sign for BushCo by any stretch of the imagination.
Kerry 46 58 52 52 51 49 57 53 50 58 55 48 49 45 47
_Bush 53 42 47 48 48 49 42 47 48 41 44 49 50 54 53
UPDATE: 3:02pm PT Mystery Pollster gives good reason to be very cautious about these exit poll numbers! Consider yourself warned. Stop reading these numbers and GET OUT THE VOTE! 🙂
UPDATE: 3:09pm PT “Nothing is real” — an apt phrase from the monkey corner:
Nope. No “panice” there.
UPDATE: 3:29pm PT Again from Slate…And not as wide a national margin as I’d like it to be! Get to work peeps!:
UPDATE: 3:46pm PT Drudge, who had previously stopped reporting exit data, has resumed with a bit:
First real poll closing and possible real numbers in 15 minutes…Developing…
UPDATE: 4:02pm PT First official calls from MSNBC…
PROJECTED FOR BUSH:
Indiana, Georgia, Kentucky
TOO CLOSE TO CALL:
Virginia
KY Senate race
SC Senate race
TOO EARLY TO CALL:
South Carolina
UPDATE: 4:12pm PT Final 6pm ET exit poll numbers from Raw Story…
Kerry 48 53 51 51 51 50 54 52 49 48 48 46 47 43 45
_Bush 51 46 49 49 47 49 44 47 49 50 52 54 53 56 55
UPDATE: 4:24pm PT From Drudge now…in red…
What does that tell you? 🙂 — By the way, the fact that Virginia and the KY senate races are too close to call should tell you much.
Ohio real numbers in 5 minutes…DEVELOPING…
UPDATE: 4:30pm PT From MSNBC…Notable tea leaves…
TOO CLOSE TO CALL:
Ohio (no surprise)
North Carolina(!)
Virginia(!)
North Carolina Senate Race(!)
South Carolina Senate Race(!)
Kentucky Senate Race(!)
Yo, Vegas peeps! Get to work!
UPDATE: 5:04pm PT From MSNBC…
KERRY WINS!
Illinois
New Jersey (no surprise, despite last week’s fake psyop spin from the monkeys)
Massachussetts
Maryland
Connecticut
Maine
Delaware
D.C.
BUSH WINS
Tennessee
Alabama
Oklahoma
TOO CLOSE TO CALL:
Florida (surprised? 😉
Missouri (!)
CURRENT ELECTORAL: (on both MSNBC and FOX)
Bush – 66
Kerry – 77
UPDATE: 5:15pm PT A little help from your friends? Fox calls South Carolina for Bush! Haven’t seen it called anywhere else yet though….DEVELOPING…
UPDATE: 5:39pm PT LIVE and REAL Ohio Numbers here. I don’t like the current percentages, but I don’t know the order of reporting precincts.
CNN calls North Carolina and South Carolina for Bush (not a surprise, but would have been nice to win)
CNN’s CURRENT ELECTORAL:
Bush: 102
Kerry: 77
UPDATE: 6:56pm PT Begala on CNN reports that absentee ballots from the three biggest FL counties (Palm Beach, Broward and…Volusia?) won’t be counted until Thursday! Have forgotten how many votes he said that was, 400,000 or so? Urgh…
UPDATE: 7:43pm PT | NEW UPDATES WILL BE UP IN THE NEXT ENTRY…Nail-biter, huh? 🙂
I see you’re up too. I’m WIDE awake. You know they were running bus trips to Nevada from LA at 7PM?
:crazy:
Can’t sleep still. Those coca colas had me wired. First FOX FUCK UP of the day on Fox and Friends.
The goon from Strategic Visions Polling was blabbing about how New Jersey might go for Bush. Their polling had %15 undecideds and Michigan was %10 undecided…but more importantly their graphic with MOE and Percentages had the 3 day poll dated October 29- Oct 32.
Also the hostess called Betty Castor, Betty Castro.
i really think that election news should be blacked out until the polls close. Its shit like this that really pisses me off. Talking about polls on election day before or at the polls opening is simply a ploy to suppress voting.
The obviously didnt let or the SV representative didnt want to get into their poll. The Bush disaproval number is 3 points higher than his support in the poll at 48% in Mich. His economy handling is 49% disapprove. Country headed in the wrong direction? 49%. The only positive number he has is terrorism. His numbers are similar (in some cases worse for him) in New Jersey. In fact, the right has been playing up his handling of terrorism as a factor in the Jersey elections but his approval for handling terrorism is lower in jersey (by a point) than it is in Michigan (less than 50%).
Will th Dems be paying homeless people in Wisconsin to vote like they did in 2000?? Castor, Castro…. an honest mistake.
Hey guys…
Just wanted to say good luck – even though you won’t need it. No 5 week delay this time. It’ll be a clear win for our man Kerry. 🙂 I’m confident.
There was a funny bit last night on TV with Will Farrell & Dana Carvey…..They were mocking the debates. Anyone see it? It was hilarious. Will Farell makes a GREAT Bush. They also used the word "strategery" which had me rolling on the floor.
Anyway – my thoughts are with you. Go get ’em. 😉
Thanks Mrs. J,
Our man (Bush) will prevail. Of course we have seen them. Darrell Hammond makes a great Gore.
"lockbox". ROTFLMAO
I just had a great moment here at work. A co-worker of mine who is a registered Republican and I thought was leaning toward Bush just walked into my office and told me that he voted for Kerry. In his words "It was an arduous decision. I went back and forth and when I got to the poll, it was gut-check time and I had to give my vote to the skinny guy (Kerry)"
Shane.
I voted by mail, but I HAD to see what the polling stations looked like this morning. I saw a mad house this morning and that was at 8am. They are expecting record turnout here in Washington, and it certainly looked that way this morning.
Calling a Senate candidate the wrong name may be a mistake, but one that a national news host shouldn’t make.
Also, Oct 32nd? Is this a leap month?
This blog has chronicled so-called Republican voter fraud and intimidation but has not chronicled so-called Democrat voter fraud and intimidation.
This blog has talked about Republican "say anything to win" but said nothing about Democrat "say anything to win." Who cares what happens in Washington, California, Texas? We know who wins those states. If Bush wins Ohio (where all those jobs were lost), then all he needs is Florida.
I hope we have a winner by tonight anyway.
And I will say this as I have said before, if Bush wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College; you liberals will not say anything about the popular vote like you said about Gore. To show that you are not hypocrites, you would say “Bush got the popular vote so he should be the winner.” But you “are” hypocrites!
And I have said this before, if Kerry wins and if it even ends up in court again, there will not be any "Kerry stole the election" from me and of course, not from you liberals. For you guys to not show yourselves as hypocrites, you would have to say “Kerry stole the election.” But you “are” hypocrites!
You may get the chance to once again show us that you guys are the real hypocrites.
Paulie, you just don’t get it. You’re gonna have a rough night.
"if Bush wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College; you liberals will not say anything about the popular vote like you said about Gore"
It wasn’t the fact that Gore won the popular vote that bothered us, it was the fact that the votes of Americans in Florida were not counted.
It was not the fact that the case went to court that made it a "stolen" election, it was the fact that the Bush/Reagan installed Supreme Court ignored the law, and handed the election to a candidate contrary to the wishes of the voters in Florida.
And finally, Paul, you don’t need to worry about any of the above. There will be no question about who the winner is by tonight.
You seem worried Paul. Hide your guns and fetuses.
Kerry may be able to take Colorado and Virginia cancelling wither Fl or Ohio.
Are the long lines making you pee your pants?
Doesn’t bother me at all. I just hope that every legal vote counts and that some don’t vote several times. Dashle I think is gone and the terrible Con. Martin Frost will also be gone. If Kerry wins, I will enjoy you guys trashing him for the next four years. It does get rid of Hillary. But, I am still confident Bush wins.
Maybe this will…
MSNBC is reporting that a Federal Judge has overturned a a lower cour ruiling by a Republican Activist Judge and will allow Provisional ballots to those people the state failed to send their absentee ballots.
Slate exit polls has Kerry up by 1 in PA and Ohio
Free Republic is dying today. Go to DU and they are active and positive, FR is bitching about stolen votes, exit polls, Drudge sucks, and deleting exit polling data.
We are voting like our lives depend on it, they are voting like they believe the most positive of their polls. I guess, in a way, so are we.
QUOTE OF THE ELECTION:
"I would not urinate down his throat if his heart was on fire"
-James Carville, on Ralph Nader
Crossfire
One can only hope this all holds and the theo-cons go down in a blaze. It’ll be good for the country and the GOP, as it will be an opening for the more moderate wing to re-assert itself.
Zogbys final electoral tally is Kerry 311 Bush 213
Kerry is up by 5 in Iowa 6 in MI 6 in MN 5 in NH 3 in NM and OH PA and FL are all Trending Kerry
David Gergen on CNN said Ohio were talking about the economy while they voted.
Powerline posted this:
"There is a ridiculous rumor on the web that Kerry is ahead on exit polls…THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF THIS!…This untrue rumor was started on the web by two internet gossip columnists and one of them now admits that her source is "not exactly trustworthy."
No one knows who is winning right now—get out and vote"
Yet forgot it has posted this:
Thune is now reported to be leading Daschle by six points
and this:
"Mid-day exit poll numbers reported in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel look good for the President."
and this:
"David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, e-mails:
At Strategic Vision, we have been reviewing and conducting exit polls and do not know where the media reports came from. We are showing a slight advantage for Bush in Florida by 1 point."
Selective memory? Was that exit poll taken on Oct. 32nd?
CNN projects a strong NJ for Kerry. SWEET. Maine may be split at worst.
It is very telling that conservatives use the word prevail when it comes to reelecting Bush. Hey guys, he’s the incumbent! He’s not put upon!
Karl Rove is a mastermind, that you could now use the word prevail. All about faux values.
Drink the Koolaid, it’s shaping up to be an exciting night.
do you think bush would actually leave if he loses?
PA…they called PA for Kerry in a LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You guys almost sound as ridiculous as you did during the debate blogs.