Reconciling 2006 Discrepancies: 7:07pm and Final Exit vs. Pre-election Polls

http://www.progressivein...um=120&topic_id=3404

There is no longer any doubt that the poll/vote discrepancies are caused by miscounting votes. The proof is once again found in the Final National Exit Poll which matched to the recorded vote count with the use of fallacious weightings. As in 2004, the Democrats won the "preliminary" 7:07pm NEP by a solid 55-43%. But the 1:00pm Final NEP cut the margin in half (52-46%).

The 7:07pm NEP low-balled the Democratic vote share with the use of "How Voted in 2004" Bush/Kerry (46/45%) weights. The Final NEP weights (49/43%) were a carbon copy of the mathematically impossible 2004 Final Bush/Gore (43/37%)weights. This is the best evidence that the Final Exit Poll once again was forced to match a fraudulent miscount. Simple logic dictates that if one demographic requires impossible or implausible weights and/or vote shares in order to match the vote count, then the other demographics must use them as well.

Matching to the vote is nothing new; exit pollsters have been doing it long before Bush arrived on the scene and stolen elections became the norm. In the pre-BushCo world, matching the Final NEP to an essentially fraud-free recorded vote made sense - until BushCo came along and stole the 2000 election, along with repeat performances in 2002 and 2004. The 2006 Democratic Tsunami overwhelmed the fraud but the Dems still "lost" 10-15 House seats they should have won.

To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match a 57-41% Democratic vote margin. The base case assumptions were that 5.7% of Democratic votes were uncounted (2.1% of Republicans) and an average of 5% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans. A sensitivity analysis determined the effects of a range (5-7%) of vote switching.

The assumed TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator.

This analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.

The theoretical Intended Vote is given by:
IV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched + Disenfranchised

The True Vote is given by:
TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched

In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted to obtain an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched votes were applied to final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted votes were subtracted from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the 7:07pm poll was NOT matched to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote shares were added in the Final since it was contaminated by implicitly including them in matching to the vote count.

Viewpoint as to why the the problem with the EVM's are never really addressed or resolved by those who can remedy the fiasco,..

Link to Truthout article.

The government would rather take the ACLU to a grand jury to get documents leaked to the ACLU, than get the facts from voting companies.

The regime simply wants to keep in power ... and the enemy of that is the accountability of the people.

Hence the saying "it does not matter who votes, it only matters who counts the votes" and keeps the tally secret.

Faith based elections ... if they are good enough for Ted Haggard they are good enough for preznit blush.