I’m writing today’s BradCast summary much quicker than usual, as polls are now beginning to close with unofficial results coming in momentarily. But we’ve got a lot packed into today’s show no matter when you tune in, that may help you make sense of what will happen tonight and over the next several days (and weeks and even months!). [Audio link to full show follows below.]

Among our coverage today….

• Not much help on who’s gonna win from the voters of first-in-the-nation Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the first town in the nation to both open and close their Election Day polls just after midnight last night. Their six total voters tied 3 to 3 between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. But four of those voters are registered Republicans and two are independent. So it might actually tell us more than originally appears.

• Polling guru Nate Silver‘s final forecast model for the 2024 Presidential election, which ran 80,000 simulations just after midnight, based on the latest pre-election polling and other noteworthy data, finds that Kamala Harris won precisely 40,012 of them. Or 50.015% of the time! Not much help there either. We may have to wait for actual, ya know, votes to be actually, ya know, counted before we can find out if all the polls telling us that everything is “tied” are actually right. (I wouldn’t bet on it.)

• There were a number of problems for voters around the country today, though not widespread, so far, and, thankfully, not violent (so far) as some had feared. There were bomb threats in Georgia, said to have come from Russian sources. But most of the issues that have come to light so far were with voting systems, of the type we’ve seen many times in the past. Hand-marked paper ballots that failed to scan in a very Republican-leaning county in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where polls were ordered to stay open an extra two hours to accommodate. Print-on-demand ballot printers that failed in a very Democratic-leaning county in battleground Arizona, leading to long lines for Native American voters. Similar isolated problems in a Democratic-leaning Louisville in Kentucky, as well as in parts of Alabama and Iowa. Thankfully, in most cases reported so far, voters were able to continue voting on hand-marked paper ballots, even if they will be tallied later — and, in some cases, by hand — as opposed to by computer tabulators at the polls. In some cases, lines grew longer as the problems were worked out, and judges ordered polls to stay open a bit longer tonight in the bargain. While rain drenched parts of several states, reports today suggest that voters were happy to tough it out with raincoats and umbrellas in long lines in order to cast their votes in the most critical Presidential election in U.S. history.

• We run down what is now expected to lie ahead over the next few hours, days, weeks and even months, particularly in the event that Kamala Harris is declared the winner by the media either tonight or over the next few days, and how Donald Trump will likely declare victory tonight no matter what.

• Relatedly, longtime election data researcher and author Richard Hayes Phillips helps us break down the battleground states likely to offer a “red mirage” in their reported results beginning this evening. That is where initially reported results misleadingly suggest a Republican win before more Democratic-leaning results come in because of various factors, including absentee ballots taking longer to tally in states where officials are not allowed to begin processing them until Election Day. He advises to be on the lookout for that “red mirage” effect tonight — and to not panic when it inevitably does! — particularly in the critical battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Many more details on that in today’s show.

• And, while we wait…a couple of somewhat related moments out of television’s “Golden Years”, including a 1958 western featuring a conman actually named Trump (seriously!) who is trying to terrify a town into paying him for a wall(!) to protect them from what he warns will otherwise be complete and total destruction. (Yes, seriously!) We played this clip originally back in 2019, but hauled it out again today in hopes that it might be the last chance for it to be relevant ever again. (Wishful thinking?)

• And, some thoughts from TV’s 98-year old legendary icon Dick Van Dyke who, yesterday, endorsed Kamala Harris and, along with it, included a video in which he reads a speech he initially delivered at an event with Martin Luther King, Jr., as written by Twilight Zone creator Rod Serling, in Los Angeles in the Spring of 1964, just before passage of the Civil Rights Act. “Hatred is not the norm,” Van Dyke reads from the 60-year old speech this week, during a moment in history that, he says, makes the speech “mean as much today, if not more, than it did then.”

• Finally, Desi Doyen joins us for our Election Day Green News Report, as wet weather complicates voting after October was one of the driest on record in almost every state; as a new tropical storm threatens the Gulf Coast; along with a boatload of actually very positive climate news for the U.S. as President Biden begins to wind down his term in office amid landmark climate achievements…

The BradCast with Brad Friedman 11/5/2024

ELECTION DAY 2024: Tea Leaves, Problems for Some Voters, Details on What Happens Next: ‘BradCast’ 11/5/2024  |  Also: Some apt points for this moment in history from television's past...   · · · · ·   ELECTION DAY 2024: Tea Leaves, Problems for Some Voters, Details on What Happens Next: ‘BradCast’ 11/5/2024  |  Also: Some apt points for this moment in history from television's past...

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