Guest Blogged by John Gideon of VotersUnite.org
One friend in the activist community asked me this morning if we are making the case enough that unverifiable/unverified DREs give some the “temptation to cheat.” Based on the close elections this year (eight House races are still not decided and there are a few recounts and contests still in the process) aren’t we in a position where there is a “temptation”? My simple answer is: Yes. The country is so evenly divided and that division is contentious to say the least. I would also add that we are in danger of desensitizing ourselves to questionable elections. It’s just another questionable election on questionable machines and only a few of us die-hards really seem to care that the voters will not have been heard in large and small races across the country. The Sarasota County story with over 18,000 undervotes is now relegated to the back pages, if it is mentioned at all, in the national media. So, Yes! In an atmosphere of tight races and now normal election contests the “temptation to cheat” is very real and very dangerous because it can be done with no one knowing and the vendors denying it will ever happen….
NAtional: ES&S ““ the Midas Touch in Reverse LINK
NAtional: Voting Machine Companies Still in Denial…
Unnamed Diebold Spokesliar Says Touch-Screen Vote Flipping ‘Not a Problem, Doesn’t Exist,’ Unnamed Sequoia Spokesliar Says It’s a ‘Conspiracy Theory from Activists and Bloggers’ LINK
NAtional: Election ’08: Vote by TiVo (VoteHere) LINK
NAtional: Opinion – Professionally run elections LINK
NAtional: Opinion – For uniform rules in national elections
Our opinion: Consistency would encourage, not confuse, voters. LINK
NAtional: Fixing The 2008 Election LINK
NAtional: Electronic voting: the silent catastrophe LINK
NAtional: A Post-Election E-Conversation with Ion Sancho LINK
AL: Baldwin County – Baldwin finds glitch in voting
Error turned Republican Gruenloh into a Democrat in uncontested race LINK
AR: Benton County – Recount Changes Three Races — Again
Win Or Lose, Candidates Doubt Outcome LINK
AR: Benton County – Third time’s a charm? LINK
AR: Crawford County – Panel Seeks Recount On Ballots LINK
AR: Poinsett County – One Vote Counts for None LINK
AR: Poinsett County – E-voting 2006: A touch screen, a missing vote, a mystery in Arkansas LINK
CA: Nevada County – 9,000 county ballots still to be counted LINK
CO: Douglas County wants answers, Denver’s still counting LINK
CO: Denver ““ Editorial – Tech ‘expert’ not only one at fault
Denver election was a two-part fiasco LINK
CO: Denver – Rainey padded work history LINK
CO: Denver – Big bar code backfire
Misprint blamed for days of hand-sorting absentee ballots LINK
CO: Douglas County Forms Panel To Study Election Problems
Group To Look At Machines, Vote Centers, Process, People LINK
CO: Douglas County – Panel will examine failures in Douglas County LINK
CT: In East Lyme, Optical-scan Voting Machines Make For ‘Tedious’ Recount LINK
CT: Recount Nears Completion in Connecticut’s 2nd District LINK
FL: Jeb Feels Better Now LINK
FL: Manatee County begins recount of 96,784 votes in Buchanan-Jennings race LINK
FL: Manatee elections workers zipping through machine recount of ballots LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Sarasota voting woes spur state audit LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Congress race goes to court
“Alarming aberrations” in machines are claimed as a recount of ballots begins. LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Voting recount begins with a lawsuit LINK
FL: Sarasota County – The curse lives!
Snafu casts doubt on new voting machines LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Election leaders prepare for recount
18,000 ballots in Southwest Florida listed as ‘no vote’ LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Sarasota vote recount begins with a lawsuit
As a recount began in a congressional race in Sarasota County, lawyers for Democrat Christine Jennings voiced concern about a state computer expert with GOP ties. LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Accusations, objections pepper District 13 recount LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Jennings picks up four votes in Manatee LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Jennings would face uphill battle in court LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Election Day trouble was widespread LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Jennings takes legal action amid recount LINK
FL: Sarasota County – As 5 counties recount votes, candidate files legal petition LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Sarasota judge defers decision on Jennings’ legal move to protect voting machines LINK
FL: Sarasota County – Judge rules state must wait to audit votes in congressional race LINK
GA: Diebold Does Not Own Our Votes LINK
ID: Bannock County ““ Election Recount LINK
ID: Bannock County – Pocatello to Recount Ballots LINK
IN: Opinion – The ballot’s in the mail LINK
IN: Delaware County – Ballots found in drawer
Another mistake for GOP-controlled election board narrowed the gap in the county recorder’s race to 25 votes. LINK
IN: Grant County – State impounds ballots in District 31
Hartford City’s Larry Hile trails Marion’s Tim Harris by 25 votes — and a recount appears likely. LINK
IN: Hamilton County – County will use Infinity voting machines in ’07
Equipment got bad rap, not compatible with 464s, says Richardson. LINK
IN: Lake County waiting on state to pick up recount materials LINK
KS: Two House hopefuls to seek recount LINK
MN: Election officials count ballots the old-fashioned way LINK
MO: Boone County – County, state diverge on voter turnout LINK
MO: St. Louis County still counting votes LINK
NC: Recount Expected in North Carolina’s 8th District LINK
NJ: Ocean County – Voting mishap blamed on software problems
Some ballots counted twice, sparking a call for a check of totals at Shore LINK
NJ: Ocean County – Judge delays recheck of county voting machines
Rules candidates weren’t sent proper information LINK
NJ: Ocean County – Poll worker mistake could eliminate ballots LINK
NJ: Ocean County – Recheck of digital voting machines pushed back a day LINK
NM: Provisional Ballots To Determine Congressional Race LINK
NY: Suffolk County – Editorial Reply: Levy’s Levers LINK
PA: Monroe County – Broken voting machine sets off a series of events LINK
UT: Salt Lake County – Paper, wood and plastic spools are high-tech vote auditors’ tools LINK
**”Daily Voting News” is meant as a comprehensive listing of reports each day concerning issues related to election and voting news around the country regardless of quality or political slant. Therefore, items listed in “Daily Voting News” may not reflect the opinions of VotersUnite.Org or BradBlog.Com**
The Corpress is literally killing us. NONE of this is being reported.
I’ve been spreading the links to The Brad Blog, Voters Unite and Vote Trust USA all over. You guys are amazing and so appreciated!! Thank you!!
The following is an email — no link:
~ ~
Dr. Lora Chamberlain writes):
Hello to all,
Just a note about my radio show this Wed. Nov 15th, 12 noon – 2pm (PST) on KSKQ.
Live stream can be clicked at the bottom of the page at http://www.KSKQ.org. >>>> STREAMING LINK:
http://audio1.kskq.org:8080/studio.m3u
——————–
For the 1st hour I will be talking to Chicago area Voting Rights Activists about the election irregularities that occurred in the “City of Big Shoulders”, Chicago, never known for it’s fair elections, is at it again!
–Peter Zelchenko in the city of Chicago from 12 noon-12:20 pm (PT) (Discovered wide-open security hole to access Chicago’s online voter registration database)
–Melissa Urda in Dupage county from 12:20 pm-12:40 pm(PT)
–Bob Wilson in Suburban Cook County from 12:40 pm- 1:00 pm(PT).
Bob will also talk about the Exit Polling done by the Election Defense Alliance group of activists.
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org
—————-
For the 2nd hour:
1:00 – 1:30 pm (PT) Lynn Landes of http://www.landesreport.org
1:30 pm – 2:00 pm (PT) Clint Curtis, the computer programmer who testified that Rep. Feeney from Florida had hired him to write software that would flip the Florida 2000 presidential race, ran against Rep Feeney in Florida for Congress. Let’s talk to him about his own race and the election irregularities in Florida and the Vote Now 2006 program. http://www.votenow2006.org http://www.clintcurtis.com
I hope you can listen in on this show at http://www.KSKQ.org on Wed. Nov 15th, 12 noon- 2 pm (Pacific Time)
Sincerely,
Dr. Lora Chamberlain
Ashland, OR
Go to the Utah article above and click on the picture to see what I call the “pinewood derby” method of auditing an election.
Maybe we can get the boy scouts to build a voting system in time for the presidential election. At least it will be predicated on the scouts oath:
Instead of Wally O’Dells oath:
FRAUD SCENARIO ANALYSIS
62 GOP-held House seats: Actual results vs. Forecast Model
The current scorecard: 230D-197R with 8 seats undecided.
The model projects that the Democrats would win 41 of the 62 GOP seats, assuming ZERO fraud. They have won 28- so far. The Republicans lead in all but one of the 8 races which are still undecided.
Model Assumptions:
Uncounted (spoiled, discraded, etc) ballots: 3% of total votes, 75% of them Democratic. This is based on the historical evidence that uncounted votes are primarily from Democratic minority precincts.
Switched votes: 4% of Democratic votes are shifted to the Republicans.
Fraud Seats Won
Scenario: Dem GOP
No Fraud 41 21
Fraud 25 37
Given the fraud scenario, the Democrats could expect to win 25 GOP-held seats (227D-208R), assuming they won all Democratic-held seats. The fraud model assumptions are assumed for all 62 districts.
These are the 16 districts most likely for fraud:
AZ-1, CA-11, CO-4, CT-2, CT-4,
FL-13, FL-24, IL-6, IL-10, KY-4,
NM-1, NC-8, OH-1, OH-6, OH-15, PA-8
The Democrats scored upsets in NH-2, PA-4, IA-2, KS-2, MN-1.
The GOP won upsets in FL-13, OH-1, OH-2, OH-15, IL-6, IL-10, IL-13 CT-4, PA-6.
The follwing table depicts the relationship between the number of races stolen from the Democrats and the percentage of votes switched.
Switched
Votes% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Races 0 5 9 15 16 19 22 23 27 30 34 36
Because of the Democratic landslide, the GOP needed to switch approximately 11% of Democratic votes (1 in 9) to reduce a Democratic pickup by 36 seats. They needed to switch 17% of Democratic votes (1 in 6) to reduce a 40-seat Dem pickup. They could not overcome the Democratic tsunami; it would have been too obvious since the election was an unprecedented blowout. The model indicates that they stole about 16 seats, assuming the fraud scenario.
Uncounted and switched votes resulted in a 6% decrease in Democratic margin, reversing the vote share from 51.3D-48.7R to 48.7D-51.3R.
It looks like the vote-switching algorithm was similar to 2004. Kerry’s 51-48 exit poll margin was almost exactly reversed in the recorded vote count.
NoFraud Dem Fraud Actual Forecast
Dem GOP Win Dem GOP Und Switch Switch
Avg 51.3 48.7 91 48.7 51.3 4 8 16
1 AZ 1 50.6 49.4 73 48.2 51.8 yes yes
2 AZ 5 51.6 48.4 95 49.1 50.9 yes
3 AZ 8 56.6 43.4 100 54.0 46.0
4 CA 4 47.2 52.8 0 44.9 55.1
5 CA 11 51.6 48.4 95 49.1 50.9 yes
6 CA 50 43.4 56.6 0 41.2 58.8
7 CO 4 50.8 49.2 80 48.4 51.6 yes yes
8 CO 5 46.2 53.8 0 43.9 56.1
9 CO 7 58.8 41.2 100 56.1 43.9
10 CT 2 51.0 49.0 85 48.6 51.4 yes yes yes
11 CT 4 54.0 46.0 100 51.5 48.5
12 CT 5 52.6 47.4 100 50.1 49.9
13 FL 13 51.4 48.6 93 48.9 51.1 yes yes
14 FL 16 54.6 45.4 100 52.0 48.0
15 FL 22 51.2 48.8 89 48.7 51.3 yes
16 FL 24 50.2 49.8 58 47.8 52.2 yes yes yes
17 ID 1 54.8 45.2 100 52.2 47.8
18 IL 6 57.6 42.4 100 54.9 45.1
19 IL 10 51.6 48.4 95 49.1 50.9 yes yes
20 IL 14 45.6 54.4 0 43.3 56.7
21 IL 19 42.6 57.4 0 40.5 59.5
22 IN 2 51.8 48.2 97 49.3 50.7 yes
23 IN 8 55.4 44.6 100 52.8 47.2
24 IN 9 50.8 49.2 80 48.4 51.6 yes
25 IA 1 54.4 45.6 100 51.8 48.2
26 IA 2 49.2 50.8 20 46.8 53.2
27 KS 2 na na na na
28 KY 3 54.4 45.6 100 51.8 48.2
29 KY 4 52.8 47.2 100 50.3 49.7
30 MN 1 48.8 51.2 11 46.4 53.6
31 MN 2 46.8 53.2 0 44.5 55.5
32 MN 6 47.4 52.6 0 45.1 54.9
33 NV 3 48.0 52.0 2 45.7 54.3
34 NH 1 46.6 53.4 0 44.3 55.7
35 NH 2 50.2 49.8 58 47.8 52.2 yes
36 NJ 7 49.6 50.4 34 47.2 52.8
37 NM 1 54.8 45.2 100 52.2 47.8 yes
38 NY 3 47.0 53.0 0 44.7 55.3
39 NY 19 51.4 48.6 93 48.9 51.1 yes
40 NY 20 56.0 44.0 100 53.4 46.6
41 NY 24 56.0 44.0 100 53.4 46.6
42 NY 26 48.4 51.6 5 46.0 54.0
43 NY 29 56.0 44.0 100 53.4 46.6
44 NC 8 52.8 47.2 100 50.3 49.7 yes
45 NC 11 53.4 46.6 100 50.9 49.1
46 OH 1 51.6 48.4 95 49.1 50.9 yes yes
47 OH 2 52.2 47.8 99 49.7 50.3 yes yes
48 OH 10 47.8 52.2 1 45.5 54.5
49 OH 15 56.6 43.4 100 54.0 46.0
50 OH 18 61.4 38.6 100 58.6 41.4
51 OK 5 39.4 60.6 0 37.4 62.6
52 PA 4 48.2 51.8 3 45.9 54.1
53 PA 6 53.2 46.8 100 50.7 49.3
54 PA 7 54.4 45.6 100 51.8 48.2
55 PA 8 51.8 48.2 97 49.3 50.7 yes
56 PA 10 56.0 44.0 100 53.4 46.6
57 TX 22 57.6 42.4 100 54.9 45.1
58 VA 2 46.6 53.4 0 44.3 55.7
59 VA 5 37.4 62.6 0 35.5 64.5
60 VA 10 48.6 51.4 7 46.2 53.8
61 WA 8 47.4 52.6 0 45.1 54.9
62 WI 8 53.4 46.6 100 50.9 49.1
Avg 46.65 45.63 DemWin Actual
11/05 Dem GOP Prob Winner
Group 1: Dems 9, GOP 3, Und 2
1 CO 7 54 38 100.0% Dem
2 OH 6 58 39 100.0% Dem
3 OH 18 53 33 100.0% Dem
4 IL 6 54 40 100.0% GOP
5 TX 22 36 28 100.0% Dem
6 AZ 8 53 41 100.0% Dem
7 OH 15 53 41 100.0% GOP
8 NY 20 53 42 100.0% Dem
9 NY 24 53 42 100.0% Dem
10 NY 29 53 42 100.0% Und
11 PA 10 47 38 100.0% Dem
12 IN 8 53 43 100.0% Dem
13 ID 1 38 34 100.0% GOP
14 NM 1 53 44 100.0% Und
FRAUD ALERT********************************
Group 2: Dem 14, GOP 11, Und 2
1 FL 16 48 41 100.0% Dem
2 IA 1 49 42 100.0% Dem
3 KY 3 52 44 100.0% Dem
4 PA 7 52 44 100.0% Dem
5 CT 4 51 44 100.0% GOP
6 NC 11 48 43 100.0% Dem
7 WI 8 51 45 100.0% Dem
8 PA 6 49 44 100.0% GOP
9 KY 4 45 42 99.8% GOP
10 NC 8 48 44 99.8% GOP
11 CT 5 46 43 99.6% Dem
12 OH 2 48 45 98.8% GOP
13 IN 2 50 47 96.8% Dem
14 PA 8 50 47 96.8% Dem
15 AZ 5 48 46 95.1% Dem
16 CA 11 48 46 95.1% Dem
17 IL 10 48 46 95.1% GOP
18 OH 1 48 46 95.1% GOP
19 FL 13 49 47 92.6% GOP
20 NY 19 49 47 92.6% Dem
21 FL 22 50 48 89.2% Dem
22 CT 2 48 47 84.9% UND
23 CO 4 43 44 79.5% GOP
24 IN 9 46 46 79.5% GOP
25 AZ 1 38 41 73.2% GOP
26 FL 24 43 45 58.2% UND
27 NH 2 46 47 58.2% Dem
END FRAUD ALERT***************************
Group 3: Dem 4, GOP 16, Und 1
1 NJ 7 43 46 34.0% GOP
2 IA 2 48 50 20.5% Dem
3 MN 1 47 50 10.8% Dem
4 VA 10 42 47 7.4% GOP
5 NY 26 46 50 4.9% GOP
6 PA 4 47 51 3.2% Dem
7 NV 3 39 46 2.0% GOP
8 OH 10 46 51 1.2% GOP
9 MN 6 42 49 0.4% GOP
10 WA 8 45 51 0.4% UND
11 CA 4 43 50 0.2% GOP
12 NY 3 44 51 0.1% GOP
13 MN 2 42 50 0.0% GOP
14 NH 1 40 49 0.0% Dem
15 VA 2 43 51 0.0% GOP
16 CO 5 42 51 0.0% GOP
17 IL 14 42 52 0.0% GOP
18 CA 50 41 55 0.0% GOP
19 IL 19 36 53 0.0% GOP
20 OK 5 37 59 0.0% GOP
21 VA 5 35 61 0.0% GOP
UNDECIDED RACES:
“¢ Ohio, 15th District: Rep. Deborah Pryce (news, bio, voting record), a member of the House Republican leadership, leads Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy race by 3,536 votes. Thousands of provisional ballots will be counted beginning Nov. 19 “” a day later than normal in deference to the Ohio State-Michigan football game Nov. 18.
“¢ New Mexico, 1st District: Republican Rep. Heather Wilson (news, bio, voting record) led Democrat Patricia Madrid by fewer than 1,500 votes out of more than 200,000 cast, with about 3,700 ballots remaining to be qualified and tallied.
“¢ North Carolina, 8th District: Rep. Robin Hayes (news, bio, voting record), a Republican, had a 449-vote lead over Democrat Larry Kissell. About 1,500 provisional ballots remained to be counted.
“¢ Ohio, 2nd District: Rep. Jean Schmidt, a Republican who called decorated Vietnam veteran Rep. John Murtha (news, bio, voting record) a coward, was ahead of Democrat Victoria Wulsin by about 2,300 votes. Counting provisional and absentee ballots could take nearly two weeks.
“¢ Connecticut, 2nd District: Democrat Joe Courtney led GOP Rep. Rob Simmons by just 66 votes. A recount is to be completed by Wednesday.
In Florida, a recount began Monday in the contest for the seat Rep. Katherine Harris (news, bio, voting record) gave up to make her failed Senate run. The Associated Press has declared a winner in that race:
Republican Vern Buchanan, who leads Democrat Christine Jennings by about 375 votes, or less than 0.02 percent.
“¢ Washington, 8th District: GOP Rep. Dave Reichert led Democrat Darcy Burner by about 3,500 votes, but many ballots in this heavily vote-by-mail state remained to be counted.
Ohio has 18 districts, it was 12 R’s and 8 D’s before the election, I believe. Now it’s 9 R’s, 7 D’s with Schmidt and Pryce in recount and leading. Forget studies and consider the big wins for Brown and Strickland, but as of now we may end up actually LOSING a seat in congress! Ohio also didn’t get one Dem judge or justice.