As Raw Story originally reported on Wednesday, the Exit Polling on the day of the Election showed Kerry ahead by robust margins in many states. By the time the day had ended Kerry’s margin had been eclipsed by Bush’s. But, notably, that only happened in states that do not have fully voter-verifiable paper trails (e.g. E-Voting machines that don’t offer printed/verifiable paper receipts for the voter to confirm that their vote was recorded correctly).
Here are a couple of rudimentary graphics now to show the difference.
In the 10 states polled where there were voter-verifiable paper trails, the Final Results barely differed from the Exit Polls (which, until this year, have been widely regarded as highly accurate since they are taken as folks actually leave the polling place). The average change from Exit Poll to Final Results in these states was a tiny .8% gain for Bush. (Exit Numbers displayed in BLUE, Final Numbers in RED):
And now look at the data from states where there are no paper trails. Note the huge difference in Final Results that changed radically from the Exit Polling results. The average gain for Bush — in these states only — was 6.25% over the Exit Polling numbers!
What could possibly account for the huge differences there between the Exit Polls and the Final Results? And only in the Non-Paper Ballot States?
The numbers shown in these graphs seem to be taken from the “4pm Exit Polls” as shown on this chart. That chart is not particular user-friendly, but with a bit of close study, it makes sense.
Those “4pm Exit Poll” numbers however, match up with the “Final 6pm Exit Polls” as reported by Raw Story on the day of. So I’m not sure if the person who compiled the chart and the above graphics was in a different time-zone to account for the 4pm/6pm discrepancy. It doesn’t really matter to be frank, as long as the numbers were correctly reported. Which they seem to have been.
It’s my understanding that a major news organization is investigating this part of the story now. So we’ll see what can be learned in the days ahead.
UPDATE: 11/9/04 Raw Story asked a former MIT “Associate Professor of Mathmatics” to look at these results, and his conclusion was that the probabilities of the Exit Polls all closing for Bush the way they did was approximately “1 in 50,000 or .002 percent”. Nonetheless, that same Professor has looked closely at the available Exit Polling data and has “ruled out any significance of a variance between electronic balloting and paper ballot states” in the matter. That story is here.
I have spoken to Raw Story editor, John Byrne about this, and he stands by the report though he adds that to get any conclusive information on the matter we’d have to now take a look at the Exit Polling data on a county-by-county level. At this time, that information has not been released to the public, though apparently it is for sale somewhere. Not sure at this time how much it would cost to purchase for further analysis (and not sure why, at this point, it isn’t simply made available to the public given all the troubling reports about this election!)
I encourage readers to support blackboxvoting.org’s efforts to obtain the computer code in the no-paper-trail states.
Also, write and harangue your Democratic leadership to grow some balls and (1) bitch that the election was stolen and (2) aggresively work to frustrate Bush in Congress
Dude, get over it. The election is over and Bush won. Get back to saving the spotted owl or whales or whatever people like you do in a non-election year. The election is over and Bush won! Now move on with your life.
:crazy:
This was undoubtably the crookedest election in the history of the United States, and should be contested to the fullest extent of the law.
Charlotte Juett
We all knew that Kerry needed a landslide to win a fixed election. The first inkling was when DeLay and Frist kept bills requiring a paper trail stuck in committee. No, that was the second inkling, the first was Florida four short years ago.
All in all, the Kerry campaign sucked hind tit. If I have to hear that line on "outsourcing" the hunt for bin-Laden one more time I will just puke in my Cheerios.
"I voted for the war before I voted against it?"
Sorry, doesn’t resonate well, or build trust in the man. Did he do this on purpose?
This paints the picture of the game of the cheating,
anti-American bastards as well as any wordsmith
could verbalize. That is, if you have half a brain, which
is apparently too high a standard for many Americans.
This result was predicted by many people who were
paying attention but considered a long shot by some
Americans like myself who are victums of an eternal hope for the pursuis of fairness and justice from our citizens.
Are we wise enough to force our "fair and balnced"media pursue this critical issue of the attempt to end of free and fair elections in our country. The media engagement is esential but to date, missing. The goal is possible, keep up the good work.
You are absolutely correct. Bush stole the election for the second time. The Democratic party needs to offer a huge reward for someone from Diebold to come forward with proof that their machines were rigged with votes for Bush and some Republican senators prior to the machines being placed in operation. The exit polls have always been correct, so why did Bush win in Ohio and Bunning win when the exit polls said the opposite? Ruth Cohen
I am as concerned about election fraud as any Democrat (or any thoughtful American, for that matter), but this allegation is ridiculous. It assumes that all states have adopted uniform voting technology standards when, in fact, a variety of technologies are in use in almost every state. For example, Ohio is grouped with "non-paper-ballot states." The person who came up with this allegation is apparently unaware that more than two-thirds of Ohio’s precincts still use old-fashioned punch-card voting systems — which, as you recall from the 2000 election, can indeed be recounted.
There ARE legitimate reasons to think that election irregularities may have occurred — but we undermine our credibility by making baseless allegations such as this one.
Now, if someone really wants to do some WORK on this (perish the thought – it’s so much easier to sit back and develop conspiracy theories), here’s how to do it:
* Identify the election districts within these states that used electronic voting (without a verified paper trail) vs. the districts that used auditable technologies (i.e., punch cards and optical scan). You can get the voting machine data from verifiedvoting.org.
* Obtain the NEP exit poll data for specific districts, if available (NEP hasn’t published the detailed data yet, but presumably this will be forthcoming)
* THEN see whether the exit poll discrepancy exceeds a reasonable statistical margin of error…
* AND come up with a persuasive explanation of why you think the exit polling was accurate (most election experts agree with NEP that it was deeply flawed).
If someone decides to tackle this, please let me know…
Cheers
Bryan
Addendum to my last comment:
Your source, Raw Story has posted a "clarification" noting that this allegation has been debunked.
So how about posting a note to your readers that they don’t have to get shook up about this?
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!
I will do exactly that, Bryan. Thanks for the note!
I’m not sure the electronic voting was rigged. Exit polls aren’t accurate.
What is more scarey is the religious right came out in droves to fight Gay marriage and abortion. Now they want to extend their win to include the birth control pills. It feels like Nazi Germany in this mutha.
"Exit polls aren’t accurate."
Where do you get that impression, liberalBastard?
They are exceedingly accurate and as such, are regularly used in 3rd World Countries to detect fraud. Even Dick Morris agrees!
These are not samples where we’re guessing if folks will show up or not (as with the pre-election polls). These are folks asked right when they left the booth "Who did you vote for?".
Finally, if the exit polls are so inaccurate, where do you get your assumption that "the religious right came out in droves to fight Gay marriage and abortion"?
I’m guessing that would be the *exit polls* that you’ve heard reported. That part of them, apparently, was accurate, but not who the folks actually voted for.
:angry: How can we all band together and demand an investigation of this gigantic fraud?
Please see the ONLINE PETITIONS and EMAIL DRIVES that are now listed in the "Action Items" at the top of the main page!
Just click http://www.BradBlog.com and see the top item, Carol!!!
After the sUPREME court gave the office to gEORGE bUSH IN 200 I swore i would not participate in another election. So much for that. After a few weeks of feeling sorry for my country and myself , I set about getting as many people as I could to register and vote. Alas, it seems I was wrong again. Ohhh well, I will give myself a couple of weeks to roll in misery and get out again and start talking to people.
FACE IT, " polls-smolls",,,,, all you babykillin-unatural freaks lost . STOP WHINNNNNING,
GOD loves you,but you don’t have enough brains
to realize it, nor the moral understanding to live
your life like you even respect him. liberals are a
pitiful lot. That is why they lost.
This election was hijacked-again. The amount of fraud, voter suppression, intimidation and clear violations of both The Voting Rigths Act and the 15th Amendment are too numerous and compelling to ignore. Keep spreading the owrd, write your reps and support http://www.helpamericarecount.org The values issue is a red herring foisted as a smokescreen to deflect away from this massive fraud.
SUE COHEN
ROCKVILLE MD
This election was hijacked-again. The amount of fraud, voter suppression, intimidation and clear violations of both The Voting Rigths Act and the 15th Amendment are too numerous and compelling to ignore. Keep spreading the owrd, write your reps and support http://www.helpamericarecount.org The values issue is a red herring foisted as a smokescreen to deflect away from this massive fraud.
SUE COHEN
ROCKVILLE MD
whatever is the result but I just dont want to see Bush as the President.
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So how about posting a note to your readers that they don’t have to get shook up about this?......
So how about posting a note to your readers that they don’t have to get shook up about this?......
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