I've warned you many times about taking polls with a grain of salt by noting that only the Zogby poll has come close to being right over the last two elections (their final poll in 1996 was within within one-tenth of one percent of the final results that year).

So though I pay attention to trends in the polls, I would warn you to not give them to much credence. That said, Zogby's latest daily tracking poll has Kerry widening his lead over Bush to 3 points with the numbers currently at 47%-44% averaged over the last three days.

And all of that said, I'll tell you my personal opinion that, barring a number of potentional external events, and there are quite a few possible, I am now predicting a Kerry landslide. That's right, a landslide. All Battleground States will go to Kerry (including Florida) and a number of "solid red states" to boot.

I don't often make predictions, as it's a perilous game that usually comes back to bite the predictor. Not to mention that predictions are like assholes because everybody's got one. I understand that could well be the case here. But what fun is life if you don't go out on a limb occassionally?

The main reason for my prediction is that the polls, even Zogby's, I believe, will proven to be entirely off again this year as they currently fail to account for the huge number of newly registered voters (mostly Democrat and ticked off about a myriad of things) and the enormous number of underground and unpolled folks who either don't own, or don't answer polls via land-line telephones (by law, cell phone users cannot be polled).

As I mentioned above, however, there are still a healthy number of mitigating factors (those "external events" I alluded to), that could still well come into play in the 25 days between now and Election Day and which could serve to effect my current prediction. They would include the effects and/or possibilities of (in no particular order of probability):

If none of the above materialize to any great extent, this is Kerry's race at this point. The "Liberal" media has not yet figured it out, so you haven't yet heard much of the above from the talking heads. No clue if they'll figure it out or not prior to the Election.

Sorry to you folks who believe in "jinxing" things, but I'm calling 'em here as I see 'em. Feel free to go on record in comments to tell me how I'm wrong or what I'm missing here.

UPDATE: Latest Gallup Tracking Poll now shows Kerry over Bush by 2 points (50% to 48%)! Notable mostly because this same poll had Bush up by 13 points just over three weeks ago!

UPDATE: And, oh yeah, forgot to mention. The Dems take back the Senate in the bargain as well.

Over on the Rightwing Hate site Free Republic, the top destination on the Internets for Bush Supporters, the webmaster has had to delete several posts apparently about Christopher Reeve. These are a few selections (courtesy of Digby, who has more) that were not deleted by the "America Loving Freepers":

Classy.

I've been having an Email exchange of late with one of our more Right-leaning readers who, after suggesting that he felt the Fox News Channel was not necessarily all that biased he admitted that he wasn't all that familiar with Roger Ailes, the Fox News General Manager and former media manager for Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr. and Rush Limbaugh.

Here's a new video from MoveOn.org that gives some information on Mr. Ailes. You may conclude that MoveOn.org might only give "one side" of the issue, but the fact is there is no other side of the issue. Everything in this video is fact.

If you Rightwingers think that someone who has helped manage the political careers of folks like Reagan, Nixon, Bush Sr. and Limbaugh for at least three decades could now possibly be either fair or balanced now that he runs a news outlet, I'd ask you if you would feel the same way if James Carville or Paul Begala opened up a "news" network and claimed that they just wanted to be "fair and balanced".

Inform yourself. Watch the video.

Since my pal Fin of What We Know did such a great job with his Toon selection yesterday, I will save myself some work, and just point you over to them.

Speaking of Fin, if you haven't check out his previous video ad, "Lone Wolf", I'd recommend it. Beyond that, he has another one coming shortly (that I've gotten a preview of) and it kicks ass. Coming soon! We'll let ya know!

No, not the Presidential Debate, but very heated Real Time with Bill Maher that followed it on HBO. If you are able to check in on one of HBO's reruns today or over the next few, do yourself the favor.

For now, all I'll say is that it was quite a knock-down drag-out brawl largely from top to bottom. It was instructive, to say the least, watching panelist Tony Snow of Fox News firmly outside of the protective environs of "Fair and Balanced". Beyond that, if I can transcribe Maher's closing "New Rule" later on today I will try to do so here. It was both brutal and right on the money.

For the record, it's America's loss (and Disney/ABC's eternal shame) that Maher is not on network TV five nights a week anymore.

One quickie from last night; One of Maher's monologue jokes (paraphrasing here) "Bush was asked by one of the questioners in the debate tonight to name three mistakes he's made since being in office. Bush replied, agreeing to last week's debate, tonight's debate and next week's debate."

Yup.

Remember the good old days when the U.S. simply toppled governments, installed their man, and then shut up about it?

Well, in a stunner of an election today in Afghanistan, it seems that the U.S. installed interim leader Hamid Karzai also seems to have won the election! What are the odds?

Well, the odds might have been 1 in 16 if you don't consider that the other 15 candidates who ran against him have all withdrawn from the election sighting unfairness in the election process.

And the good news? The wide-spread violence that was feared didn't happen, according to Reuters:

So we may have had to kill a few folks on Election Day, and all 15 non-U.S.-supported candidates dropped out of the race. But hey, nothing's perfect!

As Donald Rumsfeld recently reminded Congress (and as I'm sure you'll remember on our own Election Day coming up...especially you Floridians who may not have your vote properly counted...sorry!):

Bush/Cheney '04: Lowering the Bar to Spread "Freedom"

Bush said tonight, "Al Qaida no longer has a place to plan."

Apparently they do, Mr. "President"....From ABC: Al-Qaida Blamed in Egypt Blasts; 30 Dead

And as to this question from a fine, but well-spun St. Louisan:

Kerry gave some answer or another...but here's what I wish he had said:

"Well, Ann, I wish that was the case. Unfortunately, you may recall the deadly anthrax attacks that have occured since 9/11. Unfortunately, not a single person has been captured in the those attacks, and as you've noticed, the President and his Administration don't much like talking about it for just that reason."

...Or something like that. And along those lines, I'd point you to this Democratic Underground article of mine from June of this year.

Props to Oliver Willis for this catch...

Karl Rove is a master at this. And when Bush's get in trouble, things get ugly. Things may get very ugly, very soon.

Props to Oliver Willis for this catch...

Karl Rove is a master at this. And when Bush's get in trouble, things get ugly. Things may get very ugly, very soon. That fake school terror alert aimed at frightening "security moms" (based on month's old info, procured from one guy in Iraq who was not part of the insurgency, but responsible for building new schools in Iraq!) was likely one example. More coming...

From Kos:

From The NY Times:

And what was up with that Timber Company exhange? Here's the deal...

Bush has been charging that Kerry's plan to rollback Bush's tax cuts on the top 1% of Americans --- those making over $200,000 a year --- would effect 900,000 small businesses. Here's the exchange:

Here's more news for ya, Mr. "President", according to FactCheck.ORG:

Near the end of tonight's debate it occurred to me that even if this debate ends up regarded as a tie (and there's no way to know until after a few days of post-debate spin by both sides has had it's effect) that tonight ends as win for Kerry.

Why? Prior to the debate, much of Bush's support was soft and largely based on the brilliant job they did in making a cartoon character out of Kerry. There were a lot of folks --- a lot of Democrats, even --- who simply did not want to vote Bush, but the picture created of Kerry made them wary of getting behind him.

Twice now Kerry has stood along side of Bush, with the filter gone and looked either far better or equally as impressive/strong.

Thus, those previously concerned about voting for Kerry are being put greatly at ease, and I believe the polls will continue to show that in the next few days by moving more and more in Kerry's direction. Precisely as they have been since Debate #1.

As to the accuracy of the picture given by those polls, no matter who is leading between now and Nov. 2nd...well, I'll have more to say on that in the coming days and weeks. Suffice to say, Bush supporters would be wise not to count any poll-based chickens before they hatch.

No, not tonight's debate. But our servers after the debate. Just as we started our Post-Debate Open Thread. Oh, well... We're back up. Some post-debate observations and info to come...The Internets can be fickle things.

UPDATE: Major power outtage where our servers were located was the cause of the outtage. Our backup power-supply ran for about 1/2 hour before running out of steam. The area, I am told, is still running on backup generators, though hopefully the transition back to full power shortly will be smooth.

Who won? Who lost? Catch any Media Whore spin? Share it right here as you see it.

The debate is won in the post-debate spin. Who's winning tonight? Click COMMENTS...

Open for business! Join us in with any thoughts about tonight's Debate as it happens! Add your play-by-play thoughts to the historic on-the-fly record!

All thoughts, from all sides are welcome! We'll be here all night, though I'll open up a Post-Debate LIVE Open Thread as the official debate ends so you can share any post-debate thoughts and spin, etc!

Hit the COMMENTS button and come on in!