Sad, but true. A friend of mine who worked at the Pentagon (and still has friends there), has been told big attacks will kick off mid-November, with Fallujah at the top of the list. And they'll be the "collateral damage is acceptable" kind.

If the military stepped things up now and Bush's popularity numbers went up, you would call it "October Surprise."

Hardly, because I doubt his numbers will go up when civilians are killed in waves. Which is why he's waiting until after the election. That way, either he's in already and the uproar won't matter, or he leaves Kerry to explain the problem.