The headline from Fox “News” typified what passes for “coverage” in right-wing media: “Trump wins massive victory in Iowa“. That contrasts sharply with The BradCast’s headline: “Trump Underwhelms in Iowa“.
One core factor in analyzing the significance of either a Caucus or Primary Election is voter enthusiasm, as reflected by turnout.
Even when the especially harsh winter conditions are taken into consideration, the turnout for Iowa’s 2024 Republican Caucuses must be regarded as dismal. The number of votes cast, 110,298 — down from nearly 187,000 in 2016 — represents less than 5.3% of Iowa’s 2,083,979 registered voters.
The 56,260 ballots cast for Donald Trump represented a meager 7.8% of Iowa’s 718,901 registered Republicans.
The 51% Trump received in the 2024 Iowa Caucus is only 3 points greater than the 48% Lyndon B. Johnson, a then incumbent President, received in the 1968 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary. LBJ’s opponent, Sen. Eugene McCarthy (D-MN), received 42%. Johnson’s narrow “win” in NH was followed by his decision to drop out of the race.
And while the 21,085 votes that third place finisher Nikki Haley received was also minuscule, any objective observer should not ignore a poll revealing that 43% of Halley Republican voters said that, if Trump became the nominee, they would vote for President Joseph R. Biden in the general election.
So which is it — “massive victory” or “underwhelming”?
Ernest A. Canning is a retired attorney, author, and Vietnam Veteran (4th Infantry, Central Highlands 1968). He previously served as a Senior Advisor to Veterans For Bernie. Canning has been a member of the California state bar since 1977. In addition to a juris doctor, he has received both undergraduate and graduate degrees in political science. Follow him on twitter: @cann4ing
Underwhelming for a state Trump carried twice is more like it.
Brian –
FYI, Trump only won the IA Caucuses once previously. He lost to Ted Cruz in 2016.