BRAD BLOG readers will know that I don’t put too much stock in most polls. But when it comes to Zogby, one must sit up and take notice as he’s been the only one to have called the last 3 or 4 major elections almost entirely correctly (even while all the other pollsters had gotten it entirely wrong).
Based on his latest poll, John Zogby puts forth four arguments to back up his prediction now that “Kerry will win the election”, or at the very least “it’s John Kerry’s to lose”. His arguments for why this is so, are worth taking a look at. Particularly considering his excellent track record. (It’s also worth noting that his article is based on polls taken before the Prison Abuse Scandal broke.)
Here’s just one of his four arguments:
My most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race, and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader. Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected – compared with 51% who say it is time for someone new.
You know how I feel about polls too –
Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll shows that the president would win if the election were held today.
The nationwide poll of 981 adults, taken May 2-8 (after the prison scandal broke) revealed that among 823 registered voters Bush leads Kerry 46% to 41%, with independent Ralph Nader (news – web sites) getting 5%. In a two-way race, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 44%.
In an IBD/TIPP poll taken April 16-22, Bush led by four points in a three-man race.
In swing states, Bush widened his lead from 3 points in mid-April to 9 points in early May. He now leads Kerry in the so-called battleground states 49% to 40%.
Bush’s campaigning and heavy advertising in the Midwest and key swing states seem to be bearing fruit. In late April, Kerry led the president 45% to 40%; now Bush leads by 15 points (51% to 36%) in the Midwest.
Why has no one mentioned this election will be entirely abitrary? The right will show up to the polls, that’s certain, as will the the left (this time).
Our two-party system has collapsed on itself, turning well-thought argument into he said-she said tripe. The pendulum of opinion has finally rested, leaving IBD/TIPP and ZOGBY to concern themselves with numbers like 41 to 48, 43 to 45, 53 to 47. None of this is important, or helpful. Nor will any of the trends that continue over the next six months.
Americans have finally caught on that elections are the NBA playoffs — only interesting in the final 6 minutes (if that). Those 17 swing states and 10% undecided voters will all hang back for the summer and watch the heated accusations, and chuckle while morons beget morons. Even then, after all the hype, they’ll still have to vote their conscience, something quite arbitrary in these times.
I’m grateful there are concerned citizens with opinions who actually care to respond to polls, and I’m equally impressed of the level of social conciousness even amongst those with little or no knowledge of actual events. Yet this runaround the pundits and politicos are bothering with is only for their own amusement, and hasn’t yet represented anything tangible (nor may ever).
The worst case scenario: we all do live to November 4th, 2003, because then Someone will be Elected, and then the losing side’s spinning machine will immediately begin deconstructing the other for the next four years.
Hey Senate! Hey House! Wake up and do something positive for America with your next six months, before you (again) have to redirect and reposition your real opinions and start attacking again for your party. Use what energy you still have, put down the torches and spears. Call a truce, in time of war. No more lynching and pillaging, torturing (or abusing) our freedoms, please.
Otherwise we’ll all be reading and writing about how that lover of the French, John Kerry (one of my favorite Rush-isms), and that Good ol’ Bureaucrat Bushie are neck and neck at 41, or 42, or 43, or 44…
Polled out, already. But keep on doing what you guys do, at least it keeps the job rate climbing. Which, I suppose, will put Bush ahead at 42 over Kerry’s 41. For the moment.
Your frustration by it all, Bryan, is certainly understandable.
I think you miss one crucial notion though when you say that "the right will show up as will the left".
While the Left has yet to fall behind Kerry (a good or bad Veep choice may change that for better or worse depending) the Right is falling away from Bush. Conservatives (real ones, not the Paul kind) are very unhappy with him. I’ll have more detail on that shortly.
The question, I think, will rest on how many from each side has the impetus to get off their couch and get to the polling place.
The Left is MAD (for obvious and good reasons) and that may get them their in droves in they can get over their general lack of interest in Kerry. They do realize that anyone is better than Bush, but it would be a mistake to count on that getting them off their couches for *certain*. But they are *exceedingly* angry this time out in regards to Bush.
On the Right, I don’t think it’s as clear if the distaste emerging from Conservatives (again, real ones) will keep just enough of them from bothering to vote to make a big difference.
I think motivation to "Remove the despised" may be stronger than "We’re not crazy about him, but he’s not as bad as the other guy".
And for the record, there are polls and there are polls. Methodology makes a *huge* difference (sampling size, likely voters vs. general population, weighting for the class/racial/religious make-up of voters within various regions etc.) Which has lead, in my never-to-be-humble opinion to much more reliable results from some organizations (like Zogby), than with others.
Paul – It’s telling what you left *out* of the copy you pasted selectively above. (Source that you didn’t post was – of course – via Drudge at http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl...#038;printer=1)
In any case, you left out the following from the same poll:
"…public opinion of U.S. standing in the world hit its all-time low of 44.5 this month, reflecting the "stain" the prison scandal may have made on the country’s image. The index’s previous low was 46.7 in March 2003, just before the Iraq military action."
Arguably, a more damning statistic for the good of the country (versus the good of any one political party’s Presidential chances).
And this…
"The poll has some good news for Kerry, however. Nearly three-fourths (71%) say they made up their minds about whom they’ll vote for back in February or even earlier. One in five (18%) say they decided in April and March. While Bush dominates among the early deciders (58% to 37%), Kerry is gaining among more recent deciders (70% to 24%)."
…Which would seem to validate the second argument that Zogby offered in his full article about how support for Incumbents generally falls in re-elections historically.
Just so you’re fully informed…
The Polls mean nothing at this point.