5 Responses

1. 

   1)

   Floridiot said on 12/2/2006 @ 6:15am PT: [Permalink]

   I guess my thing is if they want to use the paper scanner type (I like the fill in the arrow shaft the best) ballot for their “instant gratification”, okay, but if its used only as the preliminary result until the official hand counted result is posted IMO

2. 

   2)

   Jeff Blanco said on 12/2/2006 @ 1:08pm PT: [Permalink]

   Sequoia’s parent company Smartmatic is under investigation by the Federal Government. The owner of Smartmatic was in Palm Beach in Florida of 2000.

   Smartmatic also has offices in Venezuela, Florida, and Mexico. All three have been involved in very controversial elections.

   Venezuela and Mexico also used Smartmatic to provide voting machines.

   I’ve been looking into Seqouia and Smartmatic as well on my blog. The deeper you dig, the stranger the story gets. I’m not sure you want to really look for the truth.

3. 

   3)

   TruthIsAll said on 12/2/2006 @ 9:40pm PT: [Permalink]

   This is an update to the Generic poll model using two projection methods:
   1) calculating the 120-poll linear trend and adding an undecided voter
   allocation adjustment (UVA) of 60% to the Democratic final trend.
   2) averaging the final 10 Generic polls and adding the UVA adjustment.

   Key results:
   The projected Democratic share was 56.4% in both methods.
   The projected shares matched to within .05%.
   The actual Democratic vote was 51.3%.

   The probability of a 5.1% discrepancy occurring by chance is near ZERO.
   Therefore, there were errors in the 120 Generic polls or…
   there were errors in the vote count.

   If you believe that the polls were off, take a trip to Sarasota.
   It’s beautiful this time of the year.
   Try to find some time to check out the voting machines in FL-13.
   And see if you can find those 18,000 missing votes.
   ________________________________________________

   Assuming the Democrats captured 60% of the undecided vote,
   1-The 120-Generic poll trendine projected a 56.43% share
   2-The Final 10 Generic poll average projected a 56.38% share

   1) Projection based on 120-Generic Poll trendline:

   Dem = 46.98+ .0419x
   GOP = 38.06+ .0047x

   Substituting x=120 and allocating 60% (UVA) to the Democrats:
   ……..Trend + UVA = Projection
   Dem= 52.01 + 4.42= 56.43%
   Rep = 38.62 + 2.95= 41.57%

   Assuming a 1.5% MoE and 60% UVA, we calculate the probability that the
   Democratic vote share would decline 5.13% from the Generic Poll (56.43%) to
   the actual vote (51.3%).

   Using the Excel Normal Distribution function:
   Probability = 1.0E-11 = NORMDIST(0.513,0.5643,0.015/1.96,TRUE)
   or 1 in 99,128,359,468

   SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS I
   Probabilities of Democratic vote discrepancies from the final point on the
   120-Generic Poll trend line for various MoE and UVA assumptions.

   UVA 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75%
   Dev 4.4% 4.8% 5.1% 5.5% 5.9% 6.2%
   Vote 55.7% 56.1% 56.4% 56.8% 57.2% 57.5%
   Margin 13.4% 14.1% 14.9% 15.6% 16.3% 17.1%

   The Probability is 1 in X, where X is given in the table below.
   (t=trillion, b=billion, m=million, k=thousand)

   UVA 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75%
   MoE Probability of Vote Discrepancy

   1.25% 358b 24t 2252t nc nc nc
   1.50% 213m 4b 99b 3t 114t 4503t
   1.75% 2.3m 21m 220m 2.7b 40b 704b
   2.00% 120k 650k 4.1m 28m 226m 2b

   2.25% 15k 60k 255k 1.2m 6.2m 36m
   2.50% 3.5k 111k 35k 124k 476k 2m
   2.75% 1.2k 2.9k 7.9k 23k 69k 228k
   3.00% .5k 1.1k 2.5k 6k 16k 43k

   ________________________________________________

   2- Projection based on the final 10 Generic Polls

   Undecided: 7.3%
   Assumption: 60% of undecided vote (UVA) allocated to Democrats
   …………..Dem GOP Margin
   Avg Date 52.0 38.7 13.3

   Harr 1023 47 33 14
   AP 1030 56 37 19
   CBS 1101 52 33 19
   Nwk 1103 54 38 16
   TIME 1103 55 40 15

   Pew 1104 47 43 4
   ABC 1104 51 45 6
   USA 1106 51 44 7
   CNN 1106 58 38 20
   FOX 1106 49 36 13

   …………..Dem GOP Margin
   Average……. 52.0% 38.7% 13.3%
   UVA…….. 4.4% 2.9% 0.9%
   —– —– —– —–
   Projection. 56.4% 41.6% 14.8%
   Vote……. 51.3% 46.4% 4.9%
   —– —– —– —–
   Discrepancy -5.1% 4.8% -9.9%

   ________________________________________________

   SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS II:
   Probability of vote discrepancies from the projected 56.4% Democratic vote,
   based on the final 10 Generic Polls, for various MoE and UVA assumptions.

   Base Case:
   Undecided vote: 7.3%
   UVA to Dems: 56.4% (equals 10-poll average)

   Average Dem vote: 52.01%
   UVA adjustment: 4.42%
   ————— —–
   Projected Vote: 56.43%

   UVA 50% 56.4% 60% 65% 70% 75%
   Dev 4.4% 4.8% 5.1% 5.5% 5.8% 6.2%
   Vote 55.7% 56.1% 56.4% 56.8% 57.1% 57.5%
   Margin 13.3% 14.2% 14.8% 15.5% 16.2% 17.0%

   Probability is 1 in X, where X is given in the table
   (t=trillion, b=billion, m=million, k=thousand)

   UVA 50% 56.4% 60% 65% 70% 75%
   MoE Probability of Vote Discrepancy

   1.25% 219b 36t 1286t nc nc nc
   1.50% 151m 5.4b 62b 1.8t 63t 3002t
   1.75% 1.8m 25m 157m 1.9b 26b 428b
   2.00% 99k 766k 3m 21m 161m 1.4b

   2.25% 13k 68k 207k 950k 4.8m 27m
   2.50% 3k 12k 29k 102k 381k 1.5m
   2.75% 1k 3.2k 6.8k 19k 58k 186k
   3.00% 446 1.2k 2.2k 5.3k 14k 37k

4. 

   4)

   Floridiot said on 12/2/2006 @ 11:29pm PT: [Permalink]

   Hey truth is all, lets go to some gambling mecca and use your probability formulas on some blackjack 😉

   (Good Stuff)

5. 

   5)

   Dredd said on 12/3/2006 @ 6:42am PT: [Permalink]

   Jeff #2

   What have you found out about The Lone Tester?