What are the odds that The BradCast would take a deep dive into the corruption of White House insiders placing anonymous, incredibly well-timed bets on unregulated “prediction markets’ and making a killing at it? [Audio link to full show follows beneath this summary.]
BUT FIRST… It’s Special Election Day in Virginia, where voters are deciding on a ballot amendment to allow state lawmakers to redraw their U.S. House map to help Democrats respond to Trump-ordered Republican mid-decade gerrymandering in other states. (Spoiler! The “YES” vote has reportedly won in what appears, at least at this hour, to have been a very close contest!) Full results and insight on tomorrow’s program.
Beyond that, the lower courts continue to serve as a bulwark against many of Donald Trump‘s most corrupt, far-right excesses. Today a federal judge put the brakes on an absurd Administration requirement for new wind and solar energy projects to receive permitting approval from three senior political appointees at the Interior Department, including Sec. Doug Burgam. U.S. District Court Judge Denise Casper put the kibosh, for now, on a series of apparently unlawful policies, clearly meant to favor the fossil fuel industry. The results has been the cancellation or delay of numerous clean, renewable energy projects at a time when energy prices are skyrocketing thanks, in no small part, to Trump’s policies and wars.
Speaking of which, after repeated vows by Trump that he would not renew his tenuous ceasefire with Iran without a new agreement when it expires on Wednesday, and threats in recent days to drop “lots of bombs” on civilian power plants and bridges with a military that was “raring to go”, our empty suit of a sundowning President TACOd yet again. Without a deal — without even the peace talks he announced would occur on Tuesday — Trump extended the ceasefire “indefinitely”. For now.
THEN… Anonymous insiders are apparently winning millions on unusual, last minute bets on various aspects of Trump’s wars — often placed by brand new accounts on so-called prediction market apps like Kalshi and Polymarket just minutes before Trump’s announcements. Now, some lawmakers and good government advocates are calling for reforms, including new laws and, at least, enforcement of existing regulations banning such bets.
For example, on the night of February 27, as talks were still underway between the U.S. and Iran to avoid war, 150 accounts placed bets that the U.S. would launch an attack against Iran the following day. The attack then happened. A New York Times analysis found that 16 of the accounts won more than $100,000 each from the wager. Around the same time, an account named “MagaMyMan” made an $87,000 bet on Iran’s Supreme Leader being toppled, just 71 minutes before news of his assassination became public. He earned more than half a million dollars with that incredibly well-timed “prediction”.
Similar bets have been placed, and fortunes made, just moments prior to various comments by Trump that have rocked the oil futures market in one direction or another. And while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has regulations already on the books against bets on war and foreign assassinations, Trump has appointed just one person, with industry ties, to the statutory bipartisan 5-member Commission. Moreover, Trump’s son, Don Jr., serves as a paid advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket. To date, existing regulations have not been enforced.
We’re joined today by longtime government ethics and reform lobbyist CRAIG HOLMAN of Public Citizen, which has been calling on CFTC Chair Michael Selig to investigate these highly suspicious incidents, improve rule-making on these quickly growing “prediction” outfits, and otherwise enforce existing regulations.
“This is the first time we’re seeing very, very large bets being placed and timed perfectly with political events,” Holman tells me, describing how these new mobile app marketplaces are different from anything we’ve seen in the past. “We’re talking not only about the size of the bets, we’re talking about the timing, which immediately raises the appearance and suspicion of insider trading.”
He cites that anonymous bet by “MagaMyMan” for $87,000 on the toppling of Iran’s Ayatollah — and his more than $500,000 payday — as evidence of that insider trading. “To me, it sounds a lot like someone within the Trump Administration who knows exactly what is about to happen, and places a large bet that’s a sure thing,” he argues.
Among the related points discussed with Holman, a longtime good-government public policy lobbyist and champion on Capitol Hill, (who is really good at explaining this stuff!)…
- How Trump’s own family business expansion into cryptocurrency and prediction markets means he has every incentive to prevent new regulations or the enforcement of existing ones.
- Whether Selig will actually call for probes into so many of the now known cases of what clearly appear to be insider trading.
- How “the CFTC has been basically rigged by Trump” to prevent the statutory seating of the four other members of the Commission.
- How very similar “bets”, to the tune of billions of dollars, are also being placed on futures markets that are supposed to be regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- The chances of several bills now proposed in Congress have of actually being adopted and ultimately signed by the President.
“It is not only the Wild West,” Holman asserts, “some scholars like Paul Krugman call it treason. Because this is actually revealing foreign policy secrets, non-public information affecting foreign policy, to whoever is watching the markets. Not only other investors, but I imagine the Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians, they’re all watching the market now” for a heads up on what the Trump Administration is about to do next.
It’s both a maddening and enlightening discussion. I hope you’ll tune in!
FINALLY… Desi Doyen joins us for our Earth Day edition of Green News Report. But, spoiler alert: It sounds much like many of other reports in that every day is Earth Day on GNR! So prepared to be both enraged and exhilarated…as usual!
Great news about the federal court ruling stopping the Interior Department from environmental mayhem (The Saturation Chronicles – 22).