8 Responses

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   TruthIsAll said on 2/6/2008 @ 12:17pm PT: [Permalink]

   Déjà  vu: The Obama to Clinton Exit Poll Shift
   Updated: Feb. 6 at 2pm
   TruthIsAll

   http://www.geocities.com/electi...esdayShift.htm

   Was it New Hampshire all over again? Once again the preliminary exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote. But this time, Hillary Clinton, not Bush, was the beneficiary of an unlikely one-sided shift from the exit poll to the vote.

   SEVEN states shifted beyond the MoE in Clinton’s direction: AL, AZ, CA, GA, IL, MA, NJ
   The probability is virtually zero that 7 of 16 states would exceed the MoE.

   At 7pm, Obama’s national exit poll share was 50.9%; his actual recorded vote share was 46.8%.
   The probability of the 4.1% discrepancy is virtually zero.

   Obama led in 11 of the 16 exit-polled states.
   In Massachusetts, Obama led by 3%; he lost by 15%.
   In New Jersey, Obama led by 5%; he lost by 10%.
   In Arizona, Obama led by 6%; he lost by 6%.
   http://openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3670

   The Final CNN Exit Poll, which was forced to match the recorded vote, indicated that 15 states shifted to Clinton.
   The exit poll shares flipped: Clinton 49.6%, Obama 45.4%.
   Obama led in just 7 states.
   http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/200...maries/results…

   Fourteen of the 16 states shifted to Clinton from the 7pm exit polls to the final recorded vote.
   Arkansas and Oklahoma shifted slightly to Obama, but Clinton won them both – by 42% and 24%.

   The recorded vote shares: Clinton 49.1%, Obama 46.8%
   Obama won 7 of the 16 states.
   He currently leads in NM by 71 votes (98% reported).

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   Linda said on 2/6/2008 @ 1:11pm PT: [Permalink]

   It is my understanding that San Diego County’s ROV Debra Seiler is a former rep for Diebold/Premier. It’s also my understanding that there’s a group of ROVs suing CA SoS Debra Bowen because she decertified Premier’s voting machines.

   How can we find out how many and which of CAs ROVs are actually “plants” who have infiltrated our ROVs offices?

   If we don’t stop this now, every county in CA will end up like LA County. Connie McCormick, former Diebold rep and LA County ROV, is likely the reason LA is having the integrity problems it’s experiencing post-Feb. 5.

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   JW said on 2/6/2008 @ 1:23pm PT: [Permalink]

   California switched to paper ballots in some counties — does anyone know how we go about finding out the vote counts for those counties vs. machine counts in the others? It would be interesting to see if we have another NH effect going on.

   Again, not crying voter fraud, but as I posted earlier as well, this exit poll shifting (all in favor of Clinton) doesn’t make sense. People then argue that folks just lie about exit polls, but these are anonymous and they’re writing them down — not speaking to someone on the phone.

   The media still hasn’t dug at why these polls are so on for other things, but off again in this case favoring the Clintons. There needs to be some explanation as to why things are so off.

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   mateito said on 2/6/2008 @ 1:27pm PT: [Permalink]

   I saw something odd last night while watching the returns come in on the CA SOS page. The gap between HC and BO was widening slightly from 1:30 AM until it began to hold steady at around 381,000 votes. Then, at 2;39 AM the gap narrowed by about 10 thousand votes to 371,530, as if a very strong LA precinct had come in for Obama.

   But then at 2:59 AM, Obama’s numbers jumped again while Clinton’s numbers stayed exactly at 1,744,945. I couldn’t help but notice Richardson’s total sat exactly at 15,000 at this time until 3:24 AM.

   There are many explanations one could offer for this. The most obvious seems to be human data entry error or delay in posting portions of the results. But I felt that I should share, particularly because the gap quickly widened back to about 380,000 votes, where it remained at 11:00 AM today. Did anyone else notice this?

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   GWN said on 2/6/2008 @ 1:28pm PT: [Permalink]

   JW I thought, maybe incorrectly that “all” counties were going paper ballots, no? but counted on scanners?

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   mateito said on 2/6/2008 @ 1:38pm PT: [Permalink]

   the counties reporting late at night were all urban counties with scanners from what i can tell.

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   Dredd said on 2/6/2008 @ 2:22pm PT: [Permalink]

   Speaking of dodging bullets, Senator Inouye (D-HI) cast his 15,000th vote in the Senate a short while ago.

   He is a Japanese American, you know, the ones who were put in prison camps by “patriots” during WWII.

   He advocated for a Japanese American unit and became a leader in that unit. It ended up being the most decorated unit in American Military history.

   He vote “yes” to sunsetting FISA in 4 years … if it passes. He is against the things he fought against … totalitarianism.

   Yet the senate leader Reid, required that there be 60 votes for it to pass. The vote was 49-46 … so it would have passed but for Reidism.

   What is Reid’s f**king problem? How many dems are going to become demoCons?

   As goes FISA so goes the nation … already at the 8 count … two to go …

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   JW said on 2/6/2008 @ 3:31pm PT: [Permalink]

   #5 —

   Actually I think you’re right. My understanding was paper ballots were paper ballots, meaning they had to be hand counted, but it looks like they’re still scanned — does that not still fall under the category of an electronic voting machine? I was thinking results on those can still be manipulated.

   When I voted, I gave it to the woman and they let you put it through the machine, but you’re given no print out that what you voted for matches with what came up on the screen.

   Here’s an article on it:

   http://www.signonsandiego.com/n...-election.html